376
FXUS62 KTAE 081418
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1018 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS WELL.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHANCES OF
1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 75%) NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. CHANCES TAPER OFF TO 50% OR LESS
IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND NO MAJOR UPDATES
WERE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THIS
FLOW WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN CONCERNS
ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
MAINLY IN THE FL COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST
AL IF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH. THE
MAIN CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
ACTIVITY PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FL COUNTIES AND DIMINISHES
AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION
TO HIGHER INSTABILITY, THE WIND FIELD IS ALSO STRONGER AND MAY
BE MORE HIGHLY SHEARED. DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AND WE'LL REFINE ANY HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WE DRAW
NEARER. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ADDITIONAL STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PROGGED ON MONDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, BUT A MOIST AND
STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE EAST THIS MORNING,
THEN BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY LATER IN THE DAY WITHIN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE. SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS, BECOME WESTERLY ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET
THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 3 FEET ON MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MORE TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME ONSHORE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEABREEZE. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LOW DISPERSION
PERSISTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND, POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSION MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS HELP TO MITIGATE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND FROM NOW INTO MONDAY EVENING. THESE
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT, BUT NOT
LIKELY ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 67 81 68 / 60 40 80 40
PANAMA CITY 81 70 80 70 / 60 60 80 50
DOTHAN 74 62 77 64 / 50 60 80 60
ALBANY 74 61 77 64 / 20 60 80 70
VALDOSTA 81 65 81 67 / 20 40 70 60
CROSS CITY 90 69 86 70 / 50 20 40 20
APALACHICOLA 80 72 80 72 / 40 40 70 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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