842
FXUS62 KTAE 082353
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
753 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS WELL.
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHANCES OF
1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 75%) NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. CHANCES TAPER OFF TO 50% OR LESS
IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT IS NOW STALLED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
WATERS. THIS WILL HOLD US IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ISN'T A FORCING MECHANISM DUE TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL RECEIVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN OUR REGION ON AND OFF FOR THE WEEKEND; SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN AL AND GA WITH LOW 80S FOR FL.
AL AND GA WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY (DAYS 1-3), WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COVERING THE
ENTIRE CWA. TODAY IS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 60-80%
IN OUR ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COUNTIES. OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE
ABOUT A 40-70% CHANCE TO SEE POPS DURING THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY, SO ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO HERE, HENCE THE MARGINAL RISK.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUT MUCH OF THE REGION INSIDE THE WARM SECTOR,
INCREASING THE INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR SEEMS TO AVERAGE AROUND 40
KTS FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6"-1.8".
WE CAN EXPECT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
THE WIREGRASS REGIONS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTHERN FL
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND RANGE FROM 70-90% FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. YET, THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND WILL ONLY HAVE
A 30-60% CHANCE FOR POPS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS THAT MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT
RULE OUT OTHER HAZARDS AT THE MOMENT, BUT WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE SITUATION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY THAT WILL PUSH OUT ALL THE
RAIN BY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. REGARDING ANY
LEVEL OF SEVERE STORMS, IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL. HOWEVER, THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. THE RISK IS NON-ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, WE CAN EXPECT A
WARMING TREND BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
TODAY'S ROUND OF STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT AT TLH AND
VLD 02-03Z. ALL TERMINALS GO DOWN TO IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH BRIEF
LIFR POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING,
AND MAY GO VFR AT TLH AND VLD DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT OUTCOME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
SWEEPS GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS ON SATURDAY,
WITH TEMPO GROUPS DENOTING THE TIMING, FROM LATE MORNING AT DHN TO
THE EARLY EVENING AT VLD. THE TIMING IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND
WILL LIKELY UNDERGO REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. OUTSIDE OF
THAT, VCTS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY NORTH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
5-10 KTS SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FEET CAN BE
EXPECT OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND
BRINGS HIGH CHANCE (70-80%) CHANCE FOR EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
TO OUR WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA AND MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND FOR A MAJORITY OF DISTRICTS. THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL
HAVE LOWER CHANCES BUT THERE IS STILL ABOUT A MEDIUM (40-50%)
CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN.
MINRH VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL AS WE WILL HAVE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. CONSISTENT CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S. FAIR DISPERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS IN RANGING FROM 2000-3000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH.
EXPECT A FEW WIND SHIFTS WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL END THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
AND BRING BACK DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOL ON
TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING BACK UP DURING THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE 1-
2.5" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS GREAT NEWS HOWEVER,
THE RIVERS PROBABLY WON'T IMPROVE BECAUSE THE SOIL WILL SOAK UP
ALL THE RAIN LEAVING LITTLE FOR RUNOFF. IF THERE ARE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES DURING THESE STORMS, THEN THERE MAY BE THE RISK FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE/APALACHICOLA RIVERS IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY THAT WILL PUSH ALL THE RAIN OUT AND
LEAVE US WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 79 68 82 69 / 60 60 80 50
PANAMA CITY 77 70 78 70 / 60 60 60 60
DOTHAN 74 63 78 65 / 70 80 90 70
ALBANY 75 62 78 65 / 70 80 90 60
VALDOSTA 81 66 81 67 / 50 60 90 50
CROSS CITY 83 69 84 69 / 60 20 20 40
APALACHICOLA 77 72 78 72 / 40 30 60 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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