736
FXUS62 KTAE 091341
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 918 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 80%) CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 1.0"
OR MORE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE CHANCES TAPER OFF TO LOW
TO MEDIUM (30 TO 50%).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
BIG OLE (TECHNICAL TERM, I KNOW) CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ROLLING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. SEVERAL SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED OUT AHEAD OF IT THANKS TO
AN H5 VORTICITY MAX. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STALLED FRONT
STRETCHING FROM BETWEEN MADISON AND PERRY, FL TO SOUTH OF
TALLAHASSEE, FL AND RIGHT OVER PANAMA CITY, FL. IN OTHER WORDS,
IT'S PRACTICALLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EBB NORTH EVER SO SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT
MUCH, AND CERTAINLY NOT NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING A STRONGER STORM OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 40 TO 50
KNOTS, WITH MOST OF IT BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL. THAT MEANS THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SO
OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. THAT SAID, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THAT POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL, IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE SHOWN A BULLS-EYE OF 3" TO 5" IN THE SPAN OF 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. IF THIS HEAVIER RAIN DOES
MATERIALIZE, THEN LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY IF IT ENDS UP FALLING IN MORE URBAN AREAS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE
REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THIS FLOW WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DIVES SE
TOWARD THE REGION. WHILE BUOYANCY IS LIMITED, DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE HIGH. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE PROGGED ON MONDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THIS MORNING, WE WILL BE WATCHING A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. IT WILL FIRST REACH DHN
AND ECP AROUND 14Z-16Z. AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF STRONG STORMS,
IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY QUITE A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. THE LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN
TYPICALLY CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS. ONCE THAT ENDS, THE LOW-LEVEL
AIR MASS THIS EVENING WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED, SO IFR AND MVFR
STRATUS WILL START TO REDEVELOP A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE WATERS, BECOME WESTERLY ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET FEET ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHEN A
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS. TODAY AND SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST, THEN
TURNING GRADUALLY MORE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE LOW DISPERSION
PERSISTING INTO EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO
CLOUD COVER, ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS HELP TO MITIGATE SOMEWHAT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY WILL VARY FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT LESS THAN ONE INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST FL
BIG BEND. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING
DROUGHT, BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DENT. NO FLASH
OR RIVERINE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 69 84 68 / 100 40 70 20
PANAMA CITY 78 70 82 70 / 80 30 50 40
DOTHAN 75 65 82 65 / 90 50 80 50
ALBANY 76 64 82 64 / 90 50 60 40
VALDOSTA 79 67 84 67 / 90 50 60 30
CROSS CITY 84 70 88 70 / 60 30 40 10
APALACHICOLA 79 72 81 72 / 70 30 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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