248
FXUS62 KTAE 091846
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 80%) CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 1.0"
OR MORE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE CHANCES TAPER OFF TO LOW
TO MEDIUM (30 TO 50%).
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG IT TO BRING US SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
TOMORROW. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING A STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO,
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT. THESE AREAS WILL
BE THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, HOWEVER A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE SW GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED, WITH 1-3 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. IN STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES, NUISANCE FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT,
PUSHING OUT THE RAIN AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN OUR AL AND GA
COUNTIES, AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR OUR FL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
AN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE NEAR
KTLH AND KVLD, WHERE PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO VFR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT WILL BRIEFLY
KNOCK CEILINGS TO IFR. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING BEFORE THEY
DROP TO IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BY
MID-MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE WATERS, BECOME WESTERLY ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING TO ABOUT 15 MPH ON MONDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. UNTIL THEN, DISPERSIONS WILL BE LOW TO POOR FOR THE
AFTERNOONS BECAUSE OF THE CONSTANT CLOUD COVER. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOLLOWING MONDAY'S COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE
1-3" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL
LIKELY MISS OUT AND ONLY RECEIVE ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
RIVERS WON'T IMPROVE MUCH BECAUSE THE SOIL WILL SOAK UP ALL THE
RAIN LEAVING LITTLE FOR RUNOFF. IF THERE ARE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
DURING THESE STORMS, THEN THERE MAY BE THE RISK FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING IN LOW- LYING AND URBAN AREAS. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
OUR COUNTIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY THAT WILL PUSH ALL THE RAIN OUT AND LEAVE US
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 67 84 68 83 / 60 70 30 90
PANAMA CITY 69 82 70 81 / 50 50 50 80
DOTHAN 64 82 65 80 / 60 60 40 80
ALBANY 64 82 64 81 / 70 50 40 70
VALDOSTA 66 84 66 83 / 60 60 30 80
CROSS CITY 68 87 69 86 / 30 30 20 50
APALACHICOLA 71 81 71 80 / 50 50 50 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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