584
FXUS62 KTAE 100616
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 60%) CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
IMPACTING TRAVEL THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
- A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA COUNTIES, WITH ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. ON MONDAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
PRIMARY THREATS ARE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 80%) CHANCE OF AN
ADDITIONAL 1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE THE
CHANCE TAPERS OFF TO LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 50%).
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 INTO SOUTHWEST
GA AND SOUTHEAST AL, WHERE THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 60%) CHANCE
OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IMPACTING TRAVEL. TODAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD FOCUS IN THE FL COUNTIES WHERE THE SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER, BUOYANCY IS POOR AND INSTABILITY IS
LACKING WITH CLOUD COVER SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LIMITED. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
COUPLE STRONGER STORMS. ADDITIONAL FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT WHICH
IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SIGNAL IS FOR ACTIVITY TO FOCUS FROM EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER
VALLEY IN GA INTO THE FL BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE, BUT
THAT WILL BE FINE TUNED AS WE DRAW NEARER. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
ON TUESDAY, GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COOLER AS A RESULT. LOOKING AHEAD,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND NEARLY
SATURATED. AS BREAKS IN A HIGHER CLOUD DECK DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS, THE COOLING EFFECT WILL AID IN LIFR CIGS FILLING IN,
WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND MIST. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY 1-2 HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. CIGS AND CLOUD BASES WILL RISE WITH HEATING OF THE
DAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HELP OF SEABREEZE LIFT IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE SEABREEZE ZONE FROM
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL CLOCK WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST,
THEN NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT, RANGING 10 TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FEET TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY TO 2 TO 4 FEET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS, THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A SEABREEZE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FL COUNTIES LEADING TO
WETTING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TODAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IF THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE REGION, WETTING RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY, WITH ERRATIC
WIND DIRECTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. POOR DISPERSION PERSISTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER, AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. WITH HIGHER
TRANSPORT WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DISPERSION SHOULD RISE TO
FAIR LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY IS FORECAST TO VARY FROM 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT LESS THAN 0.5 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THESE AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY BENEFICIAL
FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES, MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN
FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST AL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. NO FLASH OR RIVER FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 84 68 83 64 / 70 30 90 40
PANAMA CITY 82 70 81 65 / 50 50 80 40
DOTHAN 82 65 80 59 / 60 40 80 30
ALBANY 82 64 81 60 / 50 40 70 30
VALDOSTA 84 66 83 63 / 60 30 80 40
CROSS CITY 87 69 86 67 / 30 20 50 40
APALACHICOLA 81 71 80 68 / 50 50 80 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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