591
FXUS62 KTAE 110649
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
- A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA COUNTIES AND NEAR I-75 IN GA, WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
TODAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS IN THE FL COUNTIES WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND NEAR I-75 CORRIDOR IN GA. EXPECT MORE FORCING
COMPARED TO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK, AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS. MODEST SB CAPE AND DCAPE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE STRONG STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
WITH SHORTWAVES ALOFT, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT, AND RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY
IN THE FL COUNTIES. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED OVER LAND, SO
ANY STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH
IS DETAILED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
LOOKING AHEAD, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
AT 06Z, THERE WERE NO SIGNS OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT YET NEAR ANY
OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES AND CLEAR SKIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUGGESTS SHALLOW
MIST AND LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP, SO HAVE INDICATED A FEW SHORT
HOURS OF SUCH CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY AT DHN AND
ABY. MEANWHILE, A TYPICALLY VIGOROUS LATE SPRING SEABREEZE WILL GET
GOING NEAR THE COAST. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT OUR FL TERMINALS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND MAY BECOME A NEW
FOCUS FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT
ECP AND TLH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE TODAY IN THE SEABREEZE ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE FORGOTTEN AND
EMERALD COASTS WITH THE SEABREEZE TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE, SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3 FEET IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
STALLED FRONT LEADS TO MORE WETTING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY FL COUNTIES AND AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE SAME AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. A DRYING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF DISPERSION IN THE HIGH RANGE. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HIGH DISPERSION POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST GA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO FAIR DISPERSION ON TUESDAY. EXPECT THE
SEABREEZE EACH DAY TO SHIFT WIND DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENIN IN THE FL COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FL COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN TERMS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH SOME OF THE CAMS GENERATING
POCKETS OF >3 INCH RAINFALL, AS SOLUTIONS VARY FROM NEAR I-10 TO OFF
THE GULF COAST. THAT WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED AND IF THE HIGHER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. OVERALL >3" AMOUNTS ARE
A LOW PROBABILITY, BUT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES IF THEY OCCURRED
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 67 85 64 / 40 50 50 10
PANAMA CITY 85 69 85 67 / 20 50 40 20
DOTHAN 85 64 82 62 / 20 30 10 10
ALBANY 86 64 81 61 / 20 20 10 0
VALDOSTA 89 65 82 61 / 20 50 20 0
CROSS CITY 89 67 87 64 / 10 40 50 10
APALACHICOLA 83 70 81 70 / 20 50 40 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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