044
FXUS62 KTAE 111728
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
128 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
- A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA COUNTIES AND NEAR I-75 IN GA, WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
TODAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS IN THE FL COUNTIES WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND NEAR I-75 CORRIDOR IN GA. EXPECT MORE FORCING
COMPARED TO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK, AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS. MODEST SB CAPE AND DCAPE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE STRONG STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
WITH SHORTWAVES ALOFT, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT, AND RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY
IN THE FL COUNTIES. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED OVER LAND, SO
ANY STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH
IS DETAILED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
LOOKING AHEAD, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT FOR
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER OUR FL TERMINALS WHICH COULD BRING MVFR CIGS.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE ECP AND TLH
TERMINALS BUT, CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO MVFR/IFR AS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN.
DHN AND ABY TERMINALS WILL ALSO BE MVFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH MVFR
AND IFR CIGS PREVAILING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH A GENTLE BREEZE IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO BE NORTHERLY,
THEN NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SEAS OF 1-2
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT COMING
THROUGH BY THURSDAY, CLOCKING WINDS AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
STALLED FRONT LEADS TO MORE WETTING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY FL COUNTIES AND AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE SAME AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. A DRYING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF DISPERSION IN THE HIGH RANGE. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HIGH DISPERSION POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST GA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO FAIR DISPERSION ON TUESDAY. EXPECT THE
SEABREEZE EACH DAY TO SHIFT WIND DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE FL COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FL COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN TERMS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH SOME OF THE CAMS GENERATING
POCKETS OF >3 INCH RAINFALL, AS SOLUTIONS VARY FROM NEAR I-10 TO OFF
THE GULF COAST. THAT WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED AND IF THE HIGHER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. OVERALL >3" AMOUNTS ARE
A LOW PROBABILITY, BUT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES IF THEY OCCURRED
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 67 85 64 86 / 50 50 10 20
PANAMA CITY 69 85 67 83 / 50 40 20 10
DOTHAN 64 82 62 84 / 30 10 10 10
ALBANY 64 81 61 83 / 20 10 0 10
VALDOSTA 65 82 61 86 / 50 20 0 20
CROSS CITY 67 87 64 87 / 40 50 10 30
APALACHICOLA 70 81 70 80 / 50 40 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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