893
FXUS62 KTAE 112046
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF. GENERALLY IMPACTING THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA.
- WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW 90S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH AN AREA OF PVA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FORCING ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT OUR
CHANCES OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL. WE'LL
SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONCE THE LOW IS OUT OF OUR NORTHEAST GULF WATERS
TOMORROW EVENING WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANCES COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND WHEN WE'LL SEE WIDESPREAD LOW 90S. EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S UNTIL A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, DROPPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE THE 50S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S
SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT FOR
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER OUR FL TERMINALS WHICH COULD BRING MVFR CIGS.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE ECP AND TLH
TERMINALS BUT, CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO MVFR/IFR AS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN.
DHN AND ABY TERMINALS WILL ALSO BE MVFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH MVFR
AND IFR CIGS PREVAILING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING
WINDS TO BE NORTHERLY, THEN NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SEAS OF 1-2 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER FRONT COMING THROUGH BY THURSDAY, CLOCKING WINDS AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
STALLED FRONT LEADS TO MORE WETTING RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS FL COUNTIES AND AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE SAME
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF DISPERSION IN THE HIGH RANGE. EXPECT
THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY TO SHIFT WIND DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE FL COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
SEE SOME BRIEF INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WHEREVER HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OCCUR.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 83 64 86 / 60 70 20 20
PANAMA CITY 69 83 67 83 / 60 70 20 10
DOTHAN 65 81 63 84 / 40 30 10 10
ALBANY 65 79 61 83 / 20 20 10 20
VALDOSTA 66 80 62 85 / 50 60 20 40
CROSS CITY 68 85 64 86 / 60 80 20 30
APALACHICOLA 70 80 69 81 / 60 70 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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