736
FXUS62 KTAE 260540
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
140 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS.
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY UNDER
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
ENERGY ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION W/ DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, WHICH IS DETAILED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION AT THE
BOTTOM. STRONG DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, WHILE SUFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY
BE LAGGING DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN CONCERN, IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE OTHER
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE GULF BEACHES. BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF WHERE RED OR DOUBLE RED
FLAGS ARE FLYING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS HOUR BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE IN
COVERAGE THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS, BUT WE STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
ACTIVITY AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS. FOR AREAS THAT MISS OUT ON
RAIN, MOIST CONDITIONS COULD YIELD PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW DUE TO THE MESSY PATTERN. ANY
RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE BUT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER IN LOCALIZED AREAS. MORE
ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY AFFECTING EVERY TAF SITE,
BUT THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSRA ARE AT TLH AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
ELEVATED WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO JUST UNDER 20 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO
SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET, WITH HIGHEST SEAS FURTHER OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, WINDS AND SEAS COME DOWN A
BIT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AS WELL AS BRIEF WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
A VERY WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISPERSION MAY BE SLOW TO RISE EACH DAY, BUT SHOULD BECOME FAIR
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE WILL SHIFT INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
WINDS MORE ONSHORE EACH DAY, WHILE DAILY THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEFLY ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND REASONABLE HIGH-
END TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN
RATES. WHILE SOME RIVERS MAY RISE INTO ACTION STAGE, WIDESPREAD
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 72 87 72 / 40 20 50 20
PANAMA CITY 85 74 86 74 / 50 50 40 30
DOTHAN 82 69 85 69 / 90 30 80 20
ALBANY 85 69 85 69 / 80 20 80 20
VALDOSTA 89 70 88 70 / 40 20 70 20
CROSS CITY 92 71 90 72 / 10 40 40 30
APALACHICOLA 84 76 84 75 / 50 40 60 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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