538
FXUS62 KTAE 261951
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES MAY FALL ON TOP OF
INCREASINGLY WET SOILS. IF YOU SEE FLOODING, TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN!
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE INSTRUCTIVE TODAY. AN UPPER LOW IS
RETROGRADING ACROSS NW ARKANSAS WHILE RIDGING IS PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS ALLOWED AN INFLUX OF DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER THE I-75 COUNTIES AND YOU CAN SEE ANEMIC CUMULUS
GROWTH IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, FURTHER WEST, A MOISTURE PLUME
STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS A BIT AND THE REGION
IS BETWEEN THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER LOW
TO THE NW, EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DISTRIBUTION FOR LIGHT
SE FLOW, SO THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WITH LESS ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
BEFORE THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOISTEN ON FRIDAY, THURSDAY SHOULD BE
A TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DAY, MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY. AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND EARLIER STARTS IN THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. IT SEEMS THE RAINY PATTERN REALLY
ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE AS WE START OFF JUNE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
PROVIDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING BACK EAST
BY FRIDAY, LITTLE STANDS IN THE WAY TO KEEP ABOVE NORMAL POPS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
FAIRLY MESSY TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS
SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PERIODIC IMPACTS TO TERMINALS
SEEM LIKELY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS AT KDHN, KABY,
AND KECP. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
LIKELY EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH
SOME DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO RAINY CONDITIONS IS IN STORE FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR MOSSY HEAD DID RISE WELL INTO ACTION STAGE,
BUT HAS SINCE CRESTED. ADDITIONAL RAIN OF 2-3 INCHES IS ALL THAT
IS NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO CAUSE THE RIVER TO RISE INTO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE, SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
GIVEN THE HIGH PW AIRMASS, KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A SIMILAR SET UP COULD OCCUR WITH
FLASH FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AS MOST MAINSTEM RIVERS
REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 88 71 87 / 20 40 30 80
PANAMA CITY 74 86 74 86 / 50 50 20 60
DOTHAN 69 85 69 86 / 50 80 50 80
ALBANY 69 86 69 87 / 30 50 40 50
VALDOSTA 70 89 70 88 / 10 50 30 70
CROSS CITY 71 92 71 88 / 20 40 20 60
APALACHICOLA 76 85 75 84 / 30 40 30 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ007>014-
016-108-112-114-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ120>126-142>145-
155>157.
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page