677
FXUS62 KTAE 271908
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
308 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WE REMAIN IN A SOUPY SANDWICH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST
AND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS REMAINING OVERHEAD.
THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VERY WARM AND UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.
EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM
AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY HAVE TO DO WITH
PREVIOUS ROUNDS: ONCE AN AREA GETS WORKED OVER AND HAS ENOUGH TIME
TO RECOVER, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY NOT
ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA OR MAY STALL SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, EXPECT THERE TO BE AN EXTRA FOCUS ON
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THAT FRONT IN ADDITIONAL TO THE USUAL
AIRMASS SHOWERS AND STORMS WE'VE BEEN SEEING. GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 80S THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, ALTHOUGH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS MAY
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S. EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
A MIX IF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TLH
AND DHN TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST NEAR ECP AT 05Z AND THEN SPREAD INLAND AFFECTING
TLH AND VLD BEFORE MORNING WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY
EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
A WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME WSW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND LIGHT
AFTERNOON WINDS AND CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD TO LOW DISPERSIONS AT TIMES
IN THE AFTERNOONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES EACH DAY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES, THOUGH THESE
TOTALS CAN OCCUR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME UNDER SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD TOTALS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE OVER 7 DAYS). LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL TAKE ABOUT 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 1 HOUR OR ABOUT 2.5 TO 4 INCHES IN 3 HOURS TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ADD ABOUT AN INCH TO THESE
VALUES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
ON THE RIVERINE FRONT, THE UPPER PARTS OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA,
AND SHOAL BASINS ARE IN OR FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT WILL STILL TAKE ABOUT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
MOST OF OUR RIVERS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD, AND CHANCES OF MINOR
FLOODING ON RIVERS ARE LOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 84 70 87 / 40 60 10 80
PANAMA CITY 72 85 73 85 / 50 40 20 50
DOTHAN 69 83 69 83 / 20 40 30 80
ALBANY 69 83 68 83 / 30 50 30 80
VALDOSTA 70 83 69 85 / 30 80 20 80
CROSS CITY 72 86 72 89 / 70 70 30 40
APALACHICOLA 74 83 74 85 / 60 40 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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