696
FXUS62 KTAE 282329
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO CHANGE WITH THE 1000-700 MB FLOW
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE POP
DISTRIBUTION TO FAVOR EARLIER STARTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND
THEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
POPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING TO COVER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PWS. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WHICH IS SENDING IN SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR, KEEPING SHOWERS FROM
GROWING TOO NUMEROUS OR STRONG ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
BEYOND FRIDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
DOWN THE EAST COAST. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONVERGING WITH
THE BOUNDARY, THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. POPS ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WITH THE OVERALL STEERING
FLOW BECOMING WEAKER BY SUNDAY, SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. BY MONDAY, THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, GRADUALLY REDUCING RAIN CHANCES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
WITH POPS DECREASING WITH TIME, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
CIGS LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT ECP WITH HIGHEST THE
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF TLH; CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
IFR. RENEWED SHRA/TSRA FORCED BY THE SEABREEZE ON FRIDAY HAS
BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE TAFS WITH ADDT'L RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 3
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
A WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 MPH, INCREASING ON
SATURDAY TO 15-20 MPH. DISPERSIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FAIR TO GOOD
TODAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS IN THE
AFTERNOONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS REMAIN. WHILE SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE
JUMPED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE
HEAVY RAINFALL BEING MORE ISOLATED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
STREAMFLOWS ON THE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE DECREASING.
MAINSTEMS REMAIN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS INCREASED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY SLOWER STORM MOTION OVER THE
WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE RATE DRIVEN OR FROM MULTIPLE
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATION. WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE THAN A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 2 OR 3
HOURS IS SUFFICIENT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 71 89 71 / 50 30 70 40
PANAMA CITY 85 74 86 74 / 50 20 40 60
DOTHAN 84 70 85 69 / 50 30 60 40
ALBANY 84 70 85 69 / 70 40 70 60
VALDOSTA 86 70 87 69 / 70 40 70 50
CROSS CITY 88 72 91 72 / 50 20 40 40
APALACHICOLA 84 75 85 75 / 40 20 30 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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