454
FXUS62 KTAE 290649
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE RAINS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL IN COMBATING DROUGHT.
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
WILL POSE THREATS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS. WHEN THUNDER
ROARS, GO INDOORS! CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE PLANS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND DISCOURAGED
TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE (GCSB), A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE NE, AND
SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEGINS ALONG THE GCSB NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY
PUSHING NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING IN
FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SHOULD THEN INTERACT WITH THE ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT CLUSTERS THE
MOST IN SW GA, PARTICULARLY AROUND I-75.
AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS SHOULD FOSTER EFFECTIVE CELL
MERGING, HIGH SPATIAL STORM COVERAGE, AND EFFICIENT RAIN RATES.
THEREFORE, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAVE REPEATEDLY FALLEN. THE WPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OVER CENTRAL-SE GA. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG-GUSTY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH RENEWED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OFF THE GULF
AND NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW MORNING.
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID-
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (HOTTEST IN THE FL BIG BEND). THROWING IN
WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S MAKES FOR HEAT INDICES
ABOVE 90 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SULTRY
LOW 70S. THIS HOT/MUGGY WEATHER MAKES THE BEACH AN ATTRACTIVE VISIT,
BUT A PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND MAINTAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
FOR TOMORROW, THE BACKDOOR FRONT'S PRESENCE AMIDST A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE JUST TO
OUR WEST MAINTAINS ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES - HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG/NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO SEMI-
ORGANIZED TRAINING STORM CLUSTERS WHOSE WESTERLY MOTION COULD
PARALLEL THE FRONT'S ORIENTATION. IN FACT, MODELED NW FLOW ALOFT
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)
FORMING, WHICH COULD YIELD A DUAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHES SEVERAL HRS AFTER
SUNSET.
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SOUTH ON SUNDAY, THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE I-10 & I-75 CORRIDORS WHERE THE GCSB AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO BE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. BY EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK, THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH, THUS REDUCING OUR
RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 40% OR LESS IN THE SEABREEZE ZONE. A WET
PATTERN IS THEN POISED TO RETURN AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WHEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW ORIGINALLY DIGGING DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS RETREAT PROMPTS AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR SLUGS
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND (ISOLATED
NEAR 90) AND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THANKS TO THE EXPECTED RAIN AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPERATURES THEN INCREASE TO UPPER 80S/LOW
90S MONDAY-TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED. MOST FL
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-10 ARE FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE TRIPLE-DIGIT PEAK
HEAT INDICES DURING THAT TIME! LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING AT ALL BUT ECP WITH HIGHEST THE
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF TLH; CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
IFR. RENEWED SHRA/TSRA FORCED BY THE SEABREEZE TODAY HAS BEEN
INCORPORATED INTO THE TAFS WITH ADDT'L RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY ONSHORE SEABREEZE. THE ONLY BOATING CONCERNS
ARE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY, A
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE WATERS USHERS A VEERING WIND
SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY IN THE MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS
MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WIND THREAT.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF MAY 28TH HOWEVER, THE LATEST MONITOR SHOWS
IMPROVEMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN WHERE D2 SEVERE
DROUGHT IS NOW IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY FROM ALBANY, GA TO JUST WEST OF
KECP IN BAY COUNTY, FL. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT REMAINS IN
PLACE TO THE EAST. WHILE SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE JUMPED
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING MORE ISOLATED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, STREAMFLOWS ON
THE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE DECREASING. MAINSTEMS REMAIN WELL
BELOW ACTION STAGE AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS INCREASED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY SLOWER STORM MOTION OVER THE
WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE RATE DRIVEN OR FROM MULTIPLE STORMS
TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATION. WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
THAN A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 2 OR 3 HOURS IS
SUFFICIENT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
GENERATE FLASH FLOODING.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION
& STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 72 88 73 / 60 40 60 10
PANAMA CITY 86 75 86 76 / 30 40 40 20
DOTHAN 85 71 85 71 / 60 50 70 30
ALBANY 85 71 85 70 / 80 70 70 50
VALDOSTA 87 71 86 71 / 60 60 70 60
CROSS CITY 91 74 88 74 / 30 50 50 30
APALACHICOLA 86 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/IG3
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