754
FXUS62 KTAE 291728
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
128 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE RAINS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL IN COMBATING DROUGHT.
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
WILL POSE THREATS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS. WHEN THUNDER
ROARS, GO INDOORS! CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE PLANS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND DISCOURAGED
TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
TO MID-LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE FLOW SHIFTS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND,
THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND ADDT'L SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT WHICH WOULD BE
ENHANCED BY ANY SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE THAT CAN DEVELOP. WHILE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT BEST, THE TENDENCY FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND MAY INTRODUCE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL AS WELL. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE
TYPICAL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY, WHICH MAY BE
SUPPRESSED A BIT DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW,
RESULTING IN HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY,
A "BACKDOOR" (NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TRANSLATING) COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS PROGGED, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
ALTHO THE HUMID AIR MASS IS PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN AT THIS POINT.
THE OTHER CONCERN THROUGH AT LAST THIS WEEKEND IS A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE GULF BEACHES. BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF WHERE
RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
ECP WHERE LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE RESULTING IN
RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ECP OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
VFR OVERNIGHT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE BONAFIDE DAILY SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP. ON
SATURDAY, WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN APALACHEE BAY.
OTHERWISE, THE ONLY BOATING CONCERNS ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING MORNING HOURS WITH WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE. BY WEDNESDAY,
A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE WATERS USHERS A VEERING WIND
SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS
MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WIND THREAT.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY LOW
DISPERSIONS THAT MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS INCREASED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY SLOWER STORM MOTION OVER THE
WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE RATE DRIVEN OR FROM MULTIPLE STORMS
TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATION. WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
THAN A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 2 OR 3 HOURS IS
SUFFICIENT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO
GENERATE FLASH FLOODING.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS REMAIN. FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS,
VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 72 88 73 / 60 30 60 10
PANAMA CITY 86 75 86 76 / 30 40 40 20
DOTHAN 85 71 85 71 / 70 40 70 30
ALBANY 85 71 85 70 / 60 70 70 50
VALDOSTA 87 71 86 71 / 60 70 70 60
CROSS CITY 91 74 88 74 / 40 50 50 30
APALACHICOLA 86 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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