208
FXUS62 KTAE 301738
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
138 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINS
WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN COMBATING DROUGHT, BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. LESS RAIN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
WILL POSE THREATS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE PLANS TO OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE AT ALL LOCAL
BEACHES. BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A FRONTAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SPINNING OVER THE MS VALLEY
AMIDST A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS MAINTAINS HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE TODAY. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FLOURISH MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE MOVING WEST TO EAST. THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET, BUT LINGERS OVER SW GA/SE AL INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE: FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG-
GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
ONE CAVEAT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS THE POSITION OF A DRY SLOT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE WIREGRASS.
IF THAT FEATURE CAN NOSE IN EASTWARD, THEN CONVECTION MAY BECOME A
BIT MORE SUPPRESSED, THOUGH ALSO CAPABLE OF STRONGER GUSTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES (90+ HEAT INDICES) WITH LOW 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS MAKES THE BEACH ATTRACTIVE, SO PLEASE
COGNIZANT ABOUT FLAGS FLYING WITH RESPECT TO RIP CURRENTS IF
VISITING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SW AND MULTIPLE
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT RIPPLING DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS EVEN HIGHER COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN BEING THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT. GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT SITUATION, MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL, BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN UNSEASONABLY
MOIST AIRMASS. CONVECTION STEADILY WANES AFTER SUNSET.
FOR MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES (~50% OR LESS) BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
THE FL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE BACKDOOR
FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH. CONVECTION BECOMES SUPPRESSED TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF THE SEABREEZE ZONE WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE
LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SET UP OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WETTER PATTERN
RETURNS LATE THIS COMING WEEK.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS GOING TO BE HOT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM MID 90S TO LOW 100S. HIGHS GET KNOCKED DOWN TO THE 80S
STARTING WEDNESDAY THANKS TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES/CLOUD COVER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT EASTERN TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY ONSHORE SEABREEZE. OCCASIONAL FRESH
ONSHORE BREEZES USHER CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
LEGS THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. THE MAIN BOATING CONCERNS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY, A
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE WATERS USHERS A VEERING WIND
SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY IN THE MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER FRESHENS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP FIRE
CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
WIND THREAT. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
EXCLUDING THE SEABREEZE ZONE, SO CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
HOT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF MAY 28TH HOWEVER, THE LATEST
MONITOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN
WHERE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT IS NOW IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY FROM ALBANY,
GA TO JUST WEST OF KECP IN BAY COUNTY, FL. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A SLIGHT REPRIEVE IN THE WET PATTERN ARRIVES
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK. RIVERINE
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LOW. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE CARYVILLE IS
CRESTING ALONG ACTION STAGE WHILE BRUCE IS FORECAST TO REACH
ACTION STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 89 73 93 / 10 70 40 30
PANAMA CITY 76 89 76 90 / 10 30 30 20
DOTHAN 72 87 72 91 / 30 80 40 10
ALBANY 71 85 70 90 / 50 90 70 10
VALDOSTA 71 87 71 90 / 40 90 70 30
CROSS CITY 74 90 74 90 / 30 50 30 40
APALACHICOLA 78 88 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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