906
FXUS62 KTAE 311726
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- AN ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 4) IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF SW GA IN THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
- RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE ZONE INTO MID WEEK
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A DRIER AND TEMPORARY COOLER
PATTERN FOLLOWS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE AT THE WALTON, BAY, AND
GULF COUNTY BEACHES. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO HEED THE BEACH
FLAGS AND REMINDED THAT WATERS ARE CLOSED TO THE PUBLIC IF
DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 832 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST OR KEY MESSAGES AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
FROM BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A BACKDOOR FRONT, SOME UPPER
IMPULSES, AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ARE THE CULPRITS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POISED TO FLOURISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WITH MULTIPLE CELL MERGERS, TRAINING BANDS, AND PLENTIFUL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SW GA WHERE THE
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLATED TO BE POSITIONED. A SPATIAL EXTENSION IS
POSSIBLE TO SE AL AND PARTS OF NORTHERN FL. MORE DETAILS IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WELL INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. AS A
REMINDER, THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH ONCE AGAIN AT ALL
LOCAL BEACHES, SO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RED FLAGS FLYING IF
VISITING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE ZONE AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SOUTHWARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON MONDAY NIGHT, WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A (DECAYING?) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM TN/AL IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND
DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. IF THE MCS CAN
MAKE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA, THEN IT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER. A SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) LURKS JUST WEST AND NW OF OUR SE AL COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MCS MAY LEAVE BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
RENEWED CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING.
BY MID WEEK, THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SLIPPED FAR ENOUGH TO
OUR SOUTH TO ALLOW RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH AND SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 90S TO LOW 100S, THEN DROP
INTO THE 80S THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO THE
ANTICIPATED DRY AND SLIGHTLY "COOLER" POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
TUESDAY'S LOWS ARE IN THE LOW 70S, THEN DROP A FEW DEGREES EACH OF
THE NEXT SUCCESSIVE TWO NIGHTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO FEEL THE COOLEST AS INLAND MIN TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE LOW 60S (ISOLATED UPPER 50S).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR IS FORECAST AT ECP THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SITES, EXPECT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVE, ENDING 04-06Z AT DHN,
ABY, AND VLD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE ENDING TIME. THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY IFR CIGS AT DHN AND ABY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR, AND
MVFR AT VLD AND TLH. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH MVFR
AT THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES MONDAY MORNING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY ONSHORE SEABREEZE. OCCASIONAL FRESH
ONSHORE BREEZES USHER CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
LEGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL BOATING CONCERNS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY,
A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE WATERS CAUSES WINDS TO
FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL
EASTERLIES INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP FIRE
CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY WORK WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
WIND THREAT. WIDESPREAD WETTING TO SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER SW GA. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THANKS TO
PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT AND FLOURISHING CONVECTION. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION BECOMES MORE
CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE ZONE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, SO CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE HOT. NOTABLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH
TO 1.5 INCHES (ISOLATED HIGHER). HOWEVER, LOCAL CAMS SUGGEST A
12-HR WORST CASE SCENARIO OF 3-4+ INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND ABOUT
2-5+ INCHES DURING THE EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE
(ISOLATED 6-8 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE). THE PROBABILITY OF 3
INCHES RANGE FROM ABOUT 25-50% - HIGHEST AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND WIREGRASS REGION. THE 0Z HREF PAINTS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR >3
INCHES IN SE AL, SW GA, AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND WITH
LOWER-END PROBS OF EXCEEDING 5 INCHES! THIS INFORMATION SUGGESTS
A FAIRLY HIGH CEILING FOR HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT ABOUT 2-2.5 INCHES IN 1 HR AND 3-4 INCHES IN 3 HRS
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF MAY 28TH HOWEVER, THE LATEST
MONITOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN
WHERE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT IS NOW IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY FROM ALBANY,
GA TO JUST WEST OF KECP IN BAY COUNTY, FL. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY IF THE AMOUNTS DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE REALIZED.
IN TERMS OF RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE CARYVILLE HAS CRESTED AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE BRUCE IS
NOW FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE BY ABOUT 8AM EDT.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 73 90 74 / 50 40 30 10
PANAMA CITY 88 77 89 76 / 20 20 30 10
DOTHAN 84 72 89 72 / 70 80 20 30
ALBANY 83 71 88 71 / 70 70 10 30
VALDOSTA 86 72 89 71 / 70 80 40 10
CROSS CITY 90 75 90 74 / 30 30 50 10
APALACHICOLA 87 79 88 79 / 20 10 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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