982
FXUS62 KTAE 011715
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
115 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS MAINLY ALONG THE FL COUNTIES
INTO SE AL TODAY INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS: STRONG-GUSTY
WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL.
- REINFORCING COLD FRONT BRINGS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN SPC
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS IN PLACE FOR DAMAGING GUSTS
AND/OR LARGE HAIL.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY & TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY AND
"COOLER" WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE MID
WEEK. A WARMING TREND COMMENCES THURSDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE AT THE FL PANHANDLE
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL BOATING
CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
SOMEWHAT OF A MESSY CONVECTIVE SETUP IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR FL
PANHANDLE AND SE AL COUNTIES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AROUND THE I-10
CORRIDOR THEN SLIDE NORTHWESTWARD INTO SE AL WITH ADDITIONAL CELL
DEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
MEANWHILE, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS), CURRENTLY OVER
KS, IS LIKELY TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY THROUGH AL
FROM MID-LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
MUCH THE MCS EVOLVES, ESPECIALLY UPON ARRIVAL AT SOUTHERN AL WHERE
EARLIER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING. THIS SCENARIO IS
WHERE THE MESSINESS COMES IN. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
REMAINS IN PLACE JUST WEST OF US, STOPPING JUST EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH
LINGERING SHOWERS/STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A
SUFFICIENT MOIST AIRMASS. THEREFORE, SEVERAL STRONG SEMI-
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO ON THE TABLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE CAROLINAS
ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT PUSHES A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. THESE FEATURES PROMPT HIGH
RAIN CHANCES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. CONVECTION WILL POSE A DUAL THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN (SPC/WPC MARGINAL RISKS IN PLACE). MAIN
THREATS: DAMAGING GUSTS, HAIL, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE AXIS
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FOLLOW THE FRONT'S SOUTHWARD
MOTION - ALONG/NORTH OF THE I- 10 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR FILTERING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A DRYING TREND TAKES THE PLACE THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. WE ARE LOOKING AT A TEMPORARY "COOL" PERIOD WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONCLUDE
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO THE LOW 90S MAINLY ACROSS OUR FL COUNTIES
(UPPER 90S/LOW 100S HEAT INDICES). HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BECOME THE
COOLEST - UPPER 70S/LOW 80S, THEN TREND UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY. FOR LOWS, TUESDAY IS THE LAST TIME WE SHOULD
SEE READINGS IN THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE. WE ARE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD SUB-70-DEGREE INLAND MIN
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY- SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY MORNING, SOME FOLKS
MAY BE WAKING UP TO LOW 60S OR EVEN UPPER 50S!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BAND OF TSRA HAS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF TLH, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOP TOWARD ECP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE,
WE'LL WATCH A COMPLEX OF TSRA OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL THAT COULD
IMPACT DHN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PROB30 HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THAT POTENTIAL. NO TS IMPACT TO ABY AND VLD IS
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. TS WILL
REDEVELOP TOMORROW BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 842 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING EAST OF APALACHICOLA SHOULD
SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS HAVE INCREASED MID TO LATE THIS WEEK FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHEN WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
A MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS
MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
WIND THREAT (EXCLUDING SW GA TODAY). WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER SE AL & FL PANHANDLE. GREATER OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WHEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WE TREND DRIER FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE MID
WEEK.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT OUT OF THE NE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE FL BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NUISANCE AND/OR FLASH FLOODING REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF MAY 28TH HOWEVER, THE LATEST
MONITOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN
WHERE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT IS NOW IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY FROM ALBANY,
GA TO JUST WEST OF KECP IN BAY COUNTY, FL. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MEETS EXPECTATIONS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WE THEN DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.
IN TERMS OF RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE BRUCE IS IN ACTION STAGE
AND FORECAST TO CREST AROUND MID WEEK, THEN FALL BELOW ACTION
STAGE BEFORE THE WEEKEND. SUWANNEE - VALDOSTA SKIPPER BRIDGE
LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE WITH AN EXPECTED TEMPORARY CREST IN ACTION
STAGE MID WEEK BEFORE FALLING BELOW CLOSE TO THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 73 92 66 / 10 10 70 80
PANAMA CITY 88 76 89 68 / 30 10 40 70
DOTHAN 88 72 88 64 / 10 30 70 60
ALBANY 88 71 87 61 / 0 20 80 50
VALDOSTA 88 71 90 63 / 10 10 80 80
CROSS CITY 90 74 92 67 / 30 10 40 80
APALACHICOLA 87 78 89 72 / 20 30 30 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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