696
FXUS62 KTAE 012037
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
437 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
- A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA MAY
WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TOMORROW WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOSTLY DRY AND "COOLER" WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE MID WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE FL PANHANDLE
BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
BOATING CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY
THE SEA BREEZE. A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ALABAMA WILL MOVE INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL AL AS
INDICATED BY AN 18Z KBMX SOUNDING. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
STORMS WILL STILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE SYSTEM WILL MAKES
IT'S WAY INTO THE TAE AREA BY EVENING.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW.
THIS FRONT, COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT WITHIN THE IN SITU MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MU CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WITH BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. BOTH SPC AND WPC HAVE THE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RARE JUNE RESPITE FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE NORMALLY
EXPECT THIS MONTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BAND OF TSRA HAS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF TLH, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOP TOWARD ECP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MEANWHILE,
WE'LL WATCH A COMPLEX OF TSRA OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL THAT COULD
IMPACT DHN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PROB30 HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THAT POTENTIAL. NO TS IMPACT TO ABY AND VLD IS
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. TS WILL
REDEVELOP TOMORROW BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE INCREASED MID
TO LATE THIS WEEK FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE EAST. HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRECEDE WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
A MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS
MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WIND THREAT ON TUESDAY.
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TOMORROW WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION INDICES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE FL
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE LATER
IN THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1.5 INCHES. BUT
LOCALIZED HIGH-END TOTALS (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE) OF 3-5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA IS 2.5-3.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR OR ABOUT
3 TO 4.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
ON THE RIVERINE FRONT, BOTH THE SHOAL AND THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE
RIVERS ARE IN ACTION STAGE AND ARE CRESTING. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOAL
AND LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE, NO OTHER RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
ACTION STAGE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH CHANCES FROM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BEING LESS THAN 30%.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 92 66 81 / 0 50 80 10
PANAMA CITY 76 89 68 83 / 10 40 70 20
DOTHAN 71 88 64 78 / 30 60 60 0
ALBANY 70 87 61 77 / 20 70 60 10
VALDOSTA 70 89 63 80 / 10 50 80 10
CROSS CITY 75 93 68 83 / 10 50 80 20
APALACHICOLA 77 88 71 81 / 30 20 70 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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