925
FXUS62 KTAE 172341
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
741 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGH RAIN
RATES AND TRAINING BANDS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF A PANAMA CITY
TO ASHBURN LINE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH QUICK SPIN-UPS IN SOME RAIN BANDS. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
BOTH DAYS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR THE WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTY BEACHES.
HIGH SURF IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE WALTON AND BAY COUNTY
BEACHES. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH
RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST, MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD PARALLELING THE COAST UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND LATE
TONIGHT. THE REMNANT LOW WILL THEN MERGE WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE WE WON'T SEE
DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ARTHUR, WE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGING INTO OUR AREA.
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, GRADUALLY WANING IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH STORMS. HOWEVER, AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
ARTHUR MOVES INLAND TONIGHT, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH PWATS
SURGING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, LEADING TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH THE STORMS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE BANDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. THESE
TRAINING BANDS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. WITH PWATS IN THE 2.2 TO 2.4
INCH RANGE, SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF
4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS WITH A SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK
FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS IS RELATIVELY RARE FOR OUR AREA AND
SIGNALS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS. THIS POSSIBILITY LINGERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY GIVEN
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THE NEARBY
REMNANT OF ARTHUR. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE BANDS
AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING TOWARD THE GULF
COAST, AND WE WILL STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THUS,
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALSO, WE'LL CONTINUE A THREAT OF STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TOW
ON FRIDAY.
ON THE BEACHES, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE WITH BUILDING
SURF. SURF HEIGHTS OF 6 FEET ARE PROBABLE ON THE WALTON AND BAY
COUNTY BEACHES THURSDAY, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THESE BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT SLOWS ITS APPROACH TO THE GULF COAST
THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT STILL A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. GIVEN THE LIKELY
WET GROUND AT THIS POINT OF THE FORECAST, ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.
THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL FINALLY DECREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL
BUILD OFF TO OUR WEST NEXT WEEK, AND OUR TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT BACK
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. GIVEN THE VERY WET CONDITIONS, IT WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE HUMID, AND HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE CIGS DROP
TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR ECP AND DHN, GRADUALLY
SPREADING TOWARD ABY, TLH, AND VLD IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE MORE COVERAGE IN SHRA AND TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON AT DHN AND ECP, SO HAVE PREVAILING TSRA AT BOTH SITES
FROM ROUGHLY 18Z ONWARD WITH VCTS AT ABY AND VCSH WITH PROB30 TSRA
AT TLH AND VLD
MARINE
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE GULF WEST OF APALACHICOLA WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS EAST. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE
OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY, SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THICK CLOUD COVER,
AND WETTING RAINS. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY
WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TRAINING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE AREA IS AROUND 2.5-3.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR OR 3-4
INCHES IN 3 HOURS, LOWEST ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. THIS COINCIDES WITH WPC'S MODERATE
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3 OF 4). IT'S RELATIVELY RARE FOR
OUR AREA TO HAVE A MODERATE RISK OUTLINED IN OUR AREA. THIS
INDICATES EITHER NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS OR SOME SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
AREA WILL BE AROUND 3-6 INCHES, SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS UNDER TRAINING
BANDS COULD SEE 8-12 INCHES (10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING TOTALS
HIGHER THAN THIS). IF THIS FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME,
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
FARTHER EAST, WHILE THE THREAT OF CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS
LOWER, SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. BUT, THE
CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
FRIDAY'S RISK IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR WILL HAVE MOVED ON, BUT A FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. OUR GROUND WILL ALSO BE PRETTY SATURATED AT
THIS POINT, SO WE WILL BE RATHER SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
THUS, THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE RISKS DECREASE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON THE RIVER SIDE, RISES INTO ACTION STAGE AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOOD
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEA, CHOCTAWHATCHEE, AND SHOAL RIVER BASINS.
AN ISOLATED RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
BANDS TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN. OTHERWISE, MOST OTHER
RIVERS COULD RISE TO ACTION STAGE, BUT RIVER FLOODING OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BASINS IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 77 86 76 / 80 40 70 60
PANAMA CITY 87 78 85 79 / 50 60 70 60
DOTHAN 84 74 82 74 / 80 50 90 90
ALBANY 83 74 84 73 / 70 20 80 90
VALDOSTA 85 75 88 75 / 90 20 60 60
CROSS CITY 91 78 92 78 / 20 10 50 40
APALACHICOLA 87 80 86 81 / 40 30 50 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
FLZ007>013-108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
FLZ108-112.
GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
GAZ120>128-142>145-155-156.
AL...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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