311
FXUS62 KTAE 182326
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
726 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA,
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGH RAIN RATES
AND TRAINING BANDS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
TODAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF A PANAMA CITY TO
ASHBURN LINE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH QUICK SPIN-UPS IN SOME RAIN BANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5) EXISTS FROM RANDOLPH COUNTY TO WALTON
COUNTY EASTWARD WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES AREA-WIDE FRIDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR THE WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTY BEACHES.
HIGH SURF IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE WALTON AND BAY COUNTY
BEACHES. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH
RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WITH MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THESE BANDS
HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATING CELLS SO FAR TODAY, BUT WITH THE APPROACHING
LOW, LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THUS, EXPECT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT TO
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE OTHER, PERHAPS GREATER THREAT, IS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THERE IS A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO-
LOW NEAR EVERGREEN, AL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST, IT'LL
DRAG THIS NE-SW ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS BAND WOULD LIKELY TRAIN,
PRODUCING HIGH RAIN RATES AND SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
POTENTIALLY CONSIDERABLE, WHEREVER THIS BAND TRAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
WAVERED BETWEEN THE AL/FL LINE AND ACROSS PIKE/BARBOUR COUNTIES.
REGARDLESS, ALL THOSE IN THE FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ANY
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. ALL THOSE IN THE FLOOD WATCH ARE IN A MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH IS RELATIVELY
RARE, AND MEANS CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING AND/OR NUMEROUS FLASH
FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE MAY BE A LULL OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ARTHUR DEPART TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, WE'LL HAVE A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH TRAILING VORTICITY IN THE
WAKE OF ARTHUR'S REMNANTS. MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
TRAILING FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL MCS ALONG THE FRONT, MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY
RAIN THIS EVENING, WE'LL BE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THUS,
THE MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE ADJACENT FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER SEVERE
THREAT EXISTS, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF CONTINUES ALONG THE BEACHES
INTO FRIDAY. ON HIGH RISK DAYS, IT IS STRONGLY URGED THAT EVERYONE
STAYS OUT OF THE SURF.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST, WHICH MAY KICK OFF MORE CONVECTION SATURDAY. THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT REALLY DEPENDS ON
WHERE THE FRONT IS. THUS, RIGHT NOW, THE FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR
SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY AT A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE ADJACENT FL/GA COUNTIES. BUT, IF IT APPEARS THAT
TRAINING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY THAT THE FLASH FLOOD RISKS INCREASE. ALSO, A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD, BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO MORE TYPICAL FOR SUMMER AS MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND THE SEA
BREEZE BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE. HIGHS WILL RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-107,
POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME CASES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
USED THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, HRRR, AND LOCAL CAMS TO UPDATE
CONVECTIVE TIMING AT ALL TERMINALS. BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA TO AFFECT
DHN/ABY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ON/OFF ACTIVITY THRU THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS TMRW MORNING, TAKES ON AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AFTN. THERE ARE
PROB30S IN PLACE ON THE BACK END OF THIS TAF TO ACCT. OTHERWISE, A
MIX OF VFR/MFVR CONDS PREVAIL WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT
DHN/ABY OVERNIGHT. BREEZY SW WINDS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE GULF WEST OF
APALACHICOLA WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS EAST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT TO
2 TO 3 FEET THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THICK
CLOUD COVER, AND WETTING RAINS. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
HEAVY RAIN BANDS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN TO OUR AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON
WHETHER THIS SETS UP JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA OR CLOSER TO THE FL/AL
STATE LINE. HOWEVER, THE RAIN TOTALS THEMSELVES ARE CONCERNING
ENOUGH THAT A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THIS MEANS THAT NUMEROUS, POTENTIALLY
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
FOR THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
WHILE WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE AROUND 3-6
INCHES, SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS UNDER TRAINING BANDS COULD SEE 7-10
INCHES (10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING TOTALS HIGHER THAN THIS). IF
THIS FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING
WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
FARTHER EAST, WHILE THE THREAT OF CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS
LOWER, SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. BUT, THE
CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE ADJACENT
FL/GA COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. OUR GROUND WILL ALSO BE PRETTY SATURATED
AT THIS POINT, SO WE WILL BE RATHER SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
IT'S CONCERNING THAT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT OF A
TRAILING BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY'S RISK IS A BIT LOWER, BUT MORE UNCERTAIN AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP, AND POTENTIALLY FALL OVER SATURATED GROUND.
RIGHT NOW, IT'S A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND THE ADJACENT FL/GA COUNTIES.
ON THE RIVER SIDE, RISES INTO ACTION STAGE AND MINOR FLOOD ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE PEA, CHOCTAWHATCHEE, AND SHOAL RIVER BASINS. AN
ISOLATED RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF BANDS
TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN, ESPECIALLY THE SHOAL RIVER.
OTHERWISE, MOST OTHER RIVERS COULD RISE TO ACTION STAGE, BUT RIVER
FLOODING OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BASINS IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 89 75 88 / 50 80 50 90
PANAMA CITY 80 88 78 88 / 40 70 60 60
DOTHAN 74 85 73 86 / 90 90 80 90
ALBANY 73 84 73 86 / 80 80 60 80
VALDOSTA 77 87 74 88 / 50 80 60 90
CROSS CITY 80 90 77 91 / 0 60 60 70
APALACHICOLA 82 88 79 87 / 20 50 40 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ007>013-108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ120>128-142>145-155-
156.
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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