479
FXUS62 KTAE 191741
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
141 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA,
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGH RAIN RATES
AND TRAINING BANDS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY, GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF A PANAMA CITY TO
ASHBURN LINE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAN
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR THE WALTON, BAY, AND GULF
COUNTY BEACHES. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON
HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, UPDATES DON'T APPEAR
NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ARTHUR IS HEADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. IN ITS WAKE, A FRONTAL-LIKE TRAILING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IS ALREADY HANGING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR
RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. VERY MOIST PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) VALUES OF 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AND A MODERATELY TO VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO TORRENTIAL INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL
RATES. STEERING FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH, SUPPORTING
REPEATED ROUNDS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE MOST COMMON. HOWEVER WHERE
TRAINING SETS UP MOST EFFECTIVELY, POCKETS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD EXCEED 6 INCHES. RECENT RAINS HAVE ALREADY MOISTENED THE
GROUND AND RAISED RIVER LEVELS, SO THE HIGHER-END AMOUNTS WOULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
UNSEASONABLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO 1000-500 MB BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 25-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP ORGANIZE SOME OF THE STORMS
INTO GUSTY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR PERHAPS SHORT LINES. ISOLATED
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE IS NOT SO VEERED TODAY DUE TO EXIT OF ARTHUR'S
REMNANT CIRCULATION, SO THAT INGREDIENT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
MISSING TODAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE FRONTAL-LIKE EAST-WEST SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS NUDGING A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA STATE LINE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY,
TAPPING INTO THE VERY MOIST 2+ INCH PW AIR MASS TO KICK OFF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO LOSE DEFINITION ON SUNDAY, THEN
IT WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS OUR 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH EXPANDS IN OUR DIRECTION.
CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
MORE TYPICALLY FAVORED SEABREEZE ZONES ACROSS FLORIDA.
500 MB HEIGHTS FALL MODESTLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND WE MAY
GET INTO SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL AL/GA AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT, IN
ADDITION TO THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE FOCUS AREAS, WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STORMS IN
NW FLOW TEND TO BRING GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS.
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
AS COVERAGE OF COOLING THUNDERSTORMS REACHES A MINIMUM. CURRENT
FORECAST SUGGESTS WE WILL COME UP JUST SHORT OF NEEDING ANY HEAT
ADVISORIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO BARREL SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
TIME OUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT OUR TAF SITES WITH THE LINE
ALREADY HAVING CLEARED KABY AND KDHN, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO SOME VCTS
AT KDHN. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT KVLD AND
KTLH HERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE AT KECP, SO
HAVE KEPT THEM VCTS AT THE MOMENT. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS EVOLVES.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY MORNING, SO
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S AT MOST SITES FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AS A SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE EXPANDS WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE A LITTLE DRYING OCCURS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS,
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
DISTRICTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. BE READY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS. WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME PLACE, BE
READY FOR FLOODING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT REPEATED ROUNDS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE MOST
COMMON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. WHERE THUNDERSTORM
TRAINING IS MOST EFFECTIVE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING A BIT
LOWER AFTER OTHER ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS, SO RUNOFF
WILL BE VERY REACTIVE TO HIGH-END RAIN TOTALS. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER ALONG THE NW OF A PANAMA CITY-TO-ASHBURN
LINE. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGH-END TOTALS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
OCCURRING.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED. THE SETUP FOR TRAINING WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST, BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE VERY MOIST WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES BENEATH STORMS.
AFTER SATURDAY, WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER RISK, MAINLY
INVOLVING SHORT-LIVED RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
ON THE RIVER SIDE, THE SHOAL RIVER AT MOSSY HEAD JUST ROSE TO
ACTION STAGE, SO WE WILL SOON START A SITE SPECIFIC FORECAST FOR
OUR WEBSITE.
MANY OTHER RIVERS FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE BASIN WESTWARD ARE FORECAST
TO REACH ACTION STAGE BUT NOT FLOOD STAGE. WITH MANY RIVERS NOW
RUNNING HIGH, IF TRAINING STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HEADWATERS OF A
BASIN, THEN MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING WOULD BE ACHIEVABLE.
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS POINT TO A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR
FLOODING ON THE FLORIDA REACH OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, FOR EXAMPLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 75 88 73 / 90 40 90 30
PANAMA CITY 87 78 87 77 / 60 70 60 20
DOTHAN 85 73 85 71 / 100 50 70 30
ALBANY 84 73 86 71 / 90 40 60 20
VALDOSTA 88 74 88 72 / 90 40 80 20
CROSS CITY 91 77 91 74 / 60 50 60 20
APALACHICOLA 88 79 87 78 / 60 50 60 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ007>013-108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ120>128-142>145-155-156.
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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