326
FXUS62 KTAE 191846
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH RAIN RATES AND TRAINING BANDS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT, GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF A PANAMA
CITY TO ASHBURN LINE.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAN
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND THE WATERS ARE CLOSED TO
SWIMMERS AND SURFERS AT MOST BEACHES. IT IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE
BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE ELEVATED
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. A NEARBY FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIFT VERY MOIST AIR WITH PW WELL OVER
2 INCHES AND RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH MONDAY
ACTUALLY SEEING BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO BARREL SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
TIME OUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT OUR TAF SITES WITH THE LINE
ALREADY HAVING CLEARED KABY AND KDHN, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO SOME VCTS
AT KDHN. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT KVLD AND
KTLH HERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE AT KECP, SO
HAVE KEPT THEM VCTS AT THE MOMENT. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS EVOLVES.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY MORNING, SO
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S AT MOST SITES FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST.
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL WETTING
RAINS ALMOST A CERTAINTY BEFORE A LITTLE DRYING OCCURS ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS, ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST DISTRICTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. BE READY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER
THE SAME PLACE, BE READY FOR FLOODING. OUT OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE ELEVATED THREAT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING (SEE ABOVE).
AFTER SATURDAY, WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER RISK, MAINLY
INVOLVING SHORT-LIVED RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
AS FOR THE RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE MIGHT GET TO MINOR
FLOOD STATE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 88 73 90 / 60 90 30 70
PANAMA CITY 78 87 77 88 / 50 70 30 40
DOTHAN 73 85 72 87 / 60 90 40 70
ALBANY 73 86 71 88 / 20 90 20 70
VALDOSTA 74 87 72 90 / 30 90 30 60
CROSS CITY 77 90 73 92 / 60 80 40 30
APALACHICOLA 79 87 77 87 / 40 70 20 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ007>013-108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ120>128-142>145-155-
156.
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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