959
FXUS62 KTAE 192344
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
744 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH RAIN RATES AND TRAINING BANDS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT, GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF A PANAMA
CITY TO ASHBURN LINE.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAN
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND THE WATERS ARE CLOSED TO
SWIMMERS AND SURFERS AT MOST BEACHES. IT IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE
BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE ELEVATED
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. A NEARBY FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIFT VERY MOIST AIR WITH PW WELL OVER
2 INCHES AND RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH MONDAY
ACTUALLY SEEING BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
LINGERING AREAS OF CONVECTION MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF EITHER RAIN
OR THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
HAVE VICINITY LINES IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS SHOULD MOSTLY PREVAIL THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT WITH LGT WINDS. LATER TONIGHT, MFVR TO IFR CIGS OVERTAKE
DHN/ABY/VLD. USED THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL CAMS TO UPDATE
CONVECTIVE TIMING TMRW, SO PROB30S ON THE BACK END OF THIS TAF
WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST.
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL WETTING
RAINS ALMOST A CERTAINTY BEFORE A LITTLE DRYING OCCURS ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS, ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST DISTRICTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. BE READY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER
THE SAME PLACE, BE READY FOR FLOODING. OUT OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE ELEVATED THREAT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING (SEE ABOVE).
AFTER SATURDAY, WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER RISK, MAINLY
INVOLVING SHORT-LIVED RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
AS FOR THE RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE MIGHT GET TO MINOR
FLOOD STATE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 88 73 90 / 60 90 30 70
PANAMA CITY 78 87 77 88 / 50 70 30 40
DOTHAN 73 85 72 87 / 60 90 40 70
ALBANY 73 86 71 88 / 20 90 20 70
VALDOSTA 74 87 72 90 / 30 90 30 60
CROSS CITY 77 90 73 92 / 60 80 40 30
APALACHICOLA 79 87 77 87 / 40 70 20 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ007>013-108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ120>128-142>145-155-
156.
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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