067
FXUS62 KTAE 200059
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
859 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- TODAY'S FLOODING THREAT HAS SUBSIDED FOR THE EVENING, SO THE
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY.
- ONE MORE DAY OF A POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS LOWER COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND THE WATERS ARE CLOSED TO
SWIMMERS AND SURFERS AT MOST BEACHES. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH
FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE MOST IMPORTANT UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS CANCELING THE FLOOD
WATCH EARLY BASED ON CONTINUED DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. RAIN CHANCES WERE TRIMMED
DOWN USING THE LATEST NBM & LOCAL CAMS. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COOLER, SO HOURLY VALUES WERE EDITED
MAINLY WITH THE HELP OF THE 23Z HRRR. WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD MINT'S IN THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AMIDST LOW 70S TD'S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE ELEVATED
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. A NEARBY FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIFT VERY MOIST AIR WITH PW WELL OVER
2 INCHES AND RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH MONDAY
ACTUALLY SEEING BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
LINGERING AREAS OF CONVECTION MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF EITHER RAIN
OR THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
HAVE VICINITY LINES IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS SHOULD MOSTLY PREVAIL THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT WITH LGT WINDS. LATER TONIGHT, MFVR TO IFR CIGS OVERTAKE
DHN/ABY/VLD. USED THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL CAMS TO UPDATE
CONVECTIVE TIMING TMRW, SO PROB30S ON THE BACK END OF THIS TAF
WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST.
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL WETTING
RAINS ALMOST A CERTAINTY BEFORE A LITTLE DRYING OCCURS ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS, ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST DISTRICTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. BE READY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER
THE SAME PLACE, BE READY FOR FLOODING. OUT OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY WILL BE
THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING (SEE
ABOVE), BUT NO NEW WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AFTER SATURDAY, WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER RISK, MAINLY
INVOLVING SHORT-LIVED RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
AS FOR THE RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE MIGHT GET TO MINOR
FLOOD STATE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 88 73 90 / 40 90 30 70
PANAMA CITY 76 87 77 88 / 40 70 30 40
DOTHAN 70 85 72 87 / 30 90 40 70
ALBANY 71 86 71 88 / 10 90 20 70
VALDOSTA 72 87 72 90 / 20 90 30 60
CROSS CITY 74 90 73 92 / 40 80 40 30
APALACHICOLA 77 87 77 87 / 40 70 20 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL/IG3
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