468
FXUS62 KTAE 200505
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
105 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- TODAY'S FLOODING THREAT HAS SUBSIDED FOR THE EVENING, SO THE
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY.
- ONE MORE DAY OF A POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS LOWER COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND THE WATERS ARE CLOSED TO
SWIMMERS AND SURFERS AT MOST BEACHES. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH
FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE ELEVATED
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. A NEARBY FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIFT VERY MOIST AIR WITH PW WELL OVER
2 INCHES AND RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH MONDAY
ACTUALLY SEEING BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
TAFS ARE PRETTY MESSY THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MVFR CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR, MAINLY
FOR DHN AND ABY TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH LOW VSBYS AS WELL
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
A FEW STORMS MAY INCLUDE STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST.
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL WETTING
RAINS ALMOST A CERTAINTY BEFORE A LITTLE DRYING OCCURS ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS, ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST DISTRICTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. BE READY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER
THE SAME PLACE, BE READY FOR FLOODING. OUT OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY WILL BE
THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING (SEE
ABOVE), BUT NO NEW WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AFTER SATURDAY, WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER RISK, MAINLY
INVOLVING SHORT-LIVED RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS.
AS FOR THE RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE MIGHT GET TO MINOR
FLOOD STATE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 73 90 74 / 90 30 70 10
PANAMA CITY 87 77 88 79 / 70 30 40 0
DOTHAN 85 72 87 74 / 90 40 70 10
ALBANY 86 71 88 73 / 90 20 70 10
VALDOSTA 87 72 90 73 / 90 30 60 10
CROSS CITY 90 73 92 75 / 80 40 30 0
APALACHICOLA 87 77 87 80 / 70 20 40 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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