344
FXUS62 KTAE 201930
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE OVERALL RISK
APPEARS LOWER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER
FLOODED ROADS, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HEED THE ADVICE OF BEACH FLAGS AND
LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
CURRENTLY, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS
STRETCHING EASTWARD, DRAGGING A STRING OF INCREASED VORTICITY ALONG
THE GULF COAST WELL BEHIND IT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED WINDS
ALOFT WILL HELP BOOST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PWATS STILL OVER 2 INCHES, THESE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
FOR AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING STORMS, OR HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SUNDAY, WITH PWATS STILL NEAR 2 INCHES, AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF US, HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE SPREAD, BUT MORE SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER, WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, BRINGING A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PWATS, THOUGH STILL AMPLE ENOUGH
FOR DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ANOTHER INCREASE IN STORMS IS
POSSIBLE MIDWEEK AS A STRETCHED LONGWAVE TROUGH INFLUENCES THE AREA.
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP WITH A DRYING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MIXED ON SOME UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
FEATURES THAT MAY HAVE OTHER PLANS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S. THIS WILL HOVER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA COMMENCED TO DEVELOPED THIS AFTN JUST
EAST OF KECP AND WEST OF KTLH. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN A TEMPO/PROB30 MENTION OF
TSRA AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL OF COURSE
AMEND AS NECESSARY. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET, AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT SEVERAL
OF THE TERMINALS, THUS ADDED A SCT MENTIONED WHERE APPROPRIATE.
SLIGHTLY BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AOA 8-10 KTS WERE NOTED AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY WILL DECREASE TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMERTIME COVERAGE, WITH THAT LEVEL OF COVERAGE
CONTINUING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT, MUGGY AND UNSTABLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL, WITH THE COASTAL
SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. EVEN SO,
THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND DURING THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. WPC IS CARRYING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY FOR OUR ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS TODAY WILL STILL BE VERY MOIST, AND THERE IS STILL
SOME LARGER-SCALE JET STREAM LIFT IN PLAY. HOWEVER, THE STALLED
FRONT OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN RECENT DAYS IS LOSING DEFINITION
AND DISSIPATING. THIS REDUCED FOCUS WILL LESSEN THE PROSPECT OF
GETTING EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SINCE IT MAKES IT HARDER TO GET
TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES, AND
RECENT RAINS HAVE LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN SPOTS.
THE 00Z HREF SHOWS NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 5-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION...
LOWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, FLASH FLOODING IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED. A TYPICAL SCATTERING OF SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL SUPPORT SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES
BENEATH THE CORE OF STRONGER STORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 72 89 74 / 80 30 70 10
PANAMA CITY 88 76 87 79 / 70 20 40 10
DOTHAN 85 71 86 74 / 90 20 60 20
ALBANY 86 70 88 73 / 70 30 50 20
VALDOSTA 88 71 90 73 / 70 40 40 10
CROSS CITY 91 74 92 75 / 60 30 20 0
APALACHICOLA 87 77 87 80 / 40 20 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BOWSER
MARINE...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS
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