178
FXUS62 KTAE 211756
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- SEASONABLE SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD. BE READY TO HEAD INDOORS WHEN STORMS APPROACH.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY. HEED THE ADVICE OF BEACH FLAGS AND LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WAS AIDING THE EARLY CONVECTION TODAY,
INITIATING SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS WIDESPREAD EARLY COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT. WITH A MORE STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE, LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
PWATS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGH RAIN RATES. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY STILL BE A CONCERN FOR
SOME AREAS WITH SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS.
ALOFT, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOW EAST OF US, A TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW CAN ALREADY BE SEEN TAKING SHAPE, WITH SOME COMPARATIVELY
DRY AIR NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE IT'S WAY IN. THIS INFLUX WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION TO NW FLOW AS A
SERIES OF LONGWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO OUR NORTH STARTING MIDWEEK. THIS
COULD GIVE A SLIGHT BUMP IN AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY AS A NUMBER OF
SHORTWAVES MAKE THEIR WAY AROUND THE MEAN FLOW. OVERALL, THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL
SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER A BIT LONGER, LEADING TO APPARENT
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. DRY
AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN AT THE SURFACE MIDWEEK, THOUGH A RAMP UP
IN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER WILL STILL KEEP THE APPARENT TEMPS NEAR
THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
DRYING US OUT WHILE FURTHER BUMPING UP THE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
RA/TSRA HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY IMPACTING SEVERAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTN, GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION, BOTH VIS AND CIGS WOULD BRIEFLY DROP
TO BETWEEN MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE A PRECIP
MENTION AT TAF SITES /EITHER VCTS OR VCSH/, IN ADDITION TO TRYING
TO TIME TEMPO GROUPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A DIRECT IMPACT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH HINTS OF MVFR CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF, MAKING THE NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE DOMINANT WIND
REGIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND THIS WEEK WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS. A SEASONABLY
HOT, MUGGY, AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH THE
COASTAL SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TODAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS SUCH, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH SHORT-LIVED
NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH THE CORE OF STRONGER STORMS.
ON THE RIVER SIDE, RUNOFF OF FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS ARE ROUTING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUT RIVER SYSTEMS. THE BIGGEST RISES HAVE BEEN
IN THE PEA/CHOCTAWHATCHEE BASIN. THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST STILL
BRINGS THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE INTO MINOR FLOOD STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 92 76 94 / 10 40 0 50
PANAMA CITY 79 89 80 89 / 20 30 0 20
DOTHAN 73 91 75 91 / 20 20 10 50
ALBANY 73 91 75 91 / 20 30 20 60
VALDOSTA 73 92 75 93 / 20 30 0 50
CROSS CITY 76 93 77 94 / 10 10 0 10
APALACHICOLA 80 88 80 90 / 10 20 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BOWSER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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