970
FXUS62 KTAE 220114
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 912 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- SEASONABLE SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD. BE READY TO HEAD INDOORS WHEN STORMS APPROACH.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY. HEED THE ADVICE OF BEACH FLAGS AND LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WITH CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND A BIT SLOW TO FADE,
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS IN THE POPS. ACTIVITY
IS GENERALLY ON THE DECLINE EXCEPT IN THE SE BIG BEND WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER SO FAR TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE FADING.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WAS AIDING THE EARLY CONVECTION TODAY,
INITIATING SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS WIDESPREAD EARLY COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT. WITH A MORE STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE, LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
PWATS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGH RAIN RATES. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY STILL BE A CONCERN FOR
SOME AREAS WITH SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS.
ALOFT, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOW EAST OF US, A TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW CAN ALREADY BE SEEN TAKING SHAPE, WITH SOME COMPARATIVELY
DRY AIR NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE IT'S WAY IN. THIS INFLUX WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION TO NW FLOW AS A
SERIES OF LONGWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO OUR NORTH STARTING MIDWEEK. THIS
COULD GIVE A SLIGHT BUMP IN AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY AS A NUMBER OF
SHORTWAVES MAKE THEIR WAY AROUND THE MEAN FLOW. OVERALL, THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL
SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER A BIT LONGER, LEADING TO APPARENT
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. DRY
AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN AT THE SURFACE MIDWEEK, THOUGH A RAMP UP
IN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER WILL STILL KEEP THE APPARENT TEMPS NEAR
THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
DRYING US OUT WHILE FURTHER BUMPING UP THE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KDHN, KABY, AND KTLH PRIMARILY.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY, AND HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, GIVEN THE LOWER PROBABILITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AT TIMES. THEREAFTER, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF, MAKING THE NEARSHORE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE DOMINANT WIND REGIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A SEASONABLY HOT, MUGGY, AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THEN, WITH THE COASTAL SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT EACH
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. AS SUCH, THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WITH SHORT- LIVED NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH THE CORE
OF STRONGER STORMS.
ON THE RIVER SIDE, RUNOFF OF FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS ARE ROUTING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUT RIVER SYSTEMS. THE BIGGEST RISES HAVE BEEN
IN THE PEA/CHOCTAWHATCHEE BASIN. THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST STILL
BRINGS THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE INTO MINOR FLOOD STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 92 76 93 / 30 40 0 60
PANAMA CITY 79 89 80 89 / 20 10 0 20
DOTHAN 73 91 75 91 / 20 30 10 60
ALBANY 73 91 75 91 / 30 30 10 60
VALDOSTA 72 92 75 93 / 30 30 10 50
CROSS CITY 76 93 77 95 / 30 10 10 10
APALACHICOLA 80 89 80 89 / 30 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS
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