126
FXUS62 KTAE 221840
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, IN ADDITION
TO LIGHTNING. BE READY TO HEAD INDOORS WHEN STORMS APPROACH.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT WALTON, BAY, AND GULF
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. PAY ATTENTION TO THE BEACH FLAGS
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. DOUBLE RED FLAGS MEANS THE WATER IS CLOSED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ADVANCE NE FROM
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN HIGH DCAPE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A COMPLEX OF
STORMS ADVANCING SE TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, ACCOUNTED FOR
WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE AREA.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH, BUT WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS IF THEY'RE SURFACE BASED WHEN THEY REACH OUR
AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING, GIVEN SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
ON TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION, I.E., DEBRIS CLOUDS.
A FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM, GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY,
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. SOME OF THE CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS BEFORE MORE SEASONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MODELED
TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY TEND TO DRY US OUT. IF
DAILY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS SUPPRESSED, THAT WOULD LEAD TO
BUILDING HEAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED ISSUES, IF
TURBULENT DAYTIME MIXING DOES NOT LOWER DEW POINTS.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. FOLLOW THE
ADVICE OF BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS AND HEED THE BEACH FLAGS. SWIMMING
IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED UNDER RED FLAGS AND DOUBLE RED FLAGS MEAN THE
WATER IS CLOSED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCT
TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE DHN
AND TLH TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z WITH TSRA IN VICINITY OF THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT DHN/ABY/VLD STARTING AROUND 06Z AND RETURNING TO
MVFR/VFR BY 14Z TUE. WITH SW FLOW, EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP AROUND
14Z TUE IN THE FLA PANHANDLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE WITHIN THE SEABREEZE ZONE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WHICH WILL RAISE SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT. DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH ANY STORMS LEADING TO BRIEFLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
A HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DRIER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL TEND TO BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING MORE INLAND PROGRESS ON THURSDAY. ON
TUESDAY. ELEVATED WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO
POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSION DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT LOWER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY, WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE, GIVEN A POTENTIAL BREAK FROM DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FL COUNTIES.
PORTIONS OF THE OCHLOCKONEE AND ALAPAHA, AND THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, REMAIN IN ACTION STAGE. A FLOOD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE (SR 20) AND
THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR MOSSY HEAD, WITH MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THESE BASINS RESPOND TO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 76 93 75 / 50 0 40 20
PANAMA CITY 89 80 89 78 / 20 10 20 10
DOTHAN 91 75 90 73 / 30 30 40 20
ALBANY 91 75 90 73 / 20 20 50 20
VALDOSTA 92 75 92 74 / 40 10 30 20
CROSS CITY 93 77 94 76 / 10 10 10 20
APALACHICOLA 89 80 90 79 / 20 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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