508
FXUS62 KTAE 231515
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1115 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. BE READY TO HEAD INDOORS WHEN STORMS
APPROACH.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT WALTON, BAY, AND GULF
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. PAY ATTENTION TO THE BEACH
FLAGS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. DOUBLE RED FLAGS MEANS THE WATER IS
CLOSED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK, UPDATES DON'T APPEAR NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
MAKING PROGRESS FROM NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA STATE
LINE DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, ADDING A SECOND MAJOR BOUNDARY
(IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL SEABREEZE) UPON WHICH TO FOCUS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG, WITH A FEW BECOMING SEVERE.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. LOOKING AT THE STORM ENVIRONMENT, A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED. 1000-500 MB LAYER
SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 15-30 KNOTS, WHICH IS PRETTY STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SOUTH OF I-10, THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT
STEMMING FROM THE SEABREEZE WILL INCREASE TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILE ENOUGH TO FURTHER AID ORGANIZATION, GIVEN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THE WET MICROBURST SEVERITY
INDEX (WMSI) IS SUPPOSED TO REACH THIS WEEK'S PEAK THIS AFTERNOON.
SO FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON, BE READY TO
QUICKLY HEAD INDOORS. SOMEWHAT FAST STORM MOTION MEANS THAT STORMS
WILL BE UPON YOU QUICKLY SOON AFTER SKIES START TO LOOK MENACING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AND MORE
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD EVEN
MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS WILL
COMMONLY BE IN THE 60S, AND PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.4
INCHES, WHICH IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A LOT OF LARGER-SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING. NW-N FLOW
IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE SEABREEZE TO
DEVELOP, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, PIN IT CLOSE TO THE COAST. SO
WEDNESDAY IS A DAY THAT WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE SHUTDOWN IN THE DRY
POST-FRONTAL AIR.
THE DRIER AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. A RETURN OF SW-W LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, ADVECTING SIDELINED DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS THE REGION. AT FIRST ON THURSDAY, PW VALUES WILL JUST BE
MOISTENING BACK TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 1.5-INCH RANGE FOR AIR
MASS CONVECTION.
PW WILL MOISTEN EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS
OUR REGION. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUPPRESSING AND LESSENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THE LACK
OF FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL
BE THE SHORT-LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING SINGLE-CELL VARIETY.
BY MONDAY, A LARGE 500 MB HEAT WAVE HIGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID-SOUTH REGION. WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE, WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. MCS'S COMMONLY FORM AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF HEAT WAVE HIGHS, AND, INDEED, SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
POINT TO A CLUSTER OF STORMS SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA LATE MONDAY.
THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES START TO REBOUND NEXT MONDAY.
WITH A HEAT WAVE HIGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION, WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY MID-MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ECP, TLH, AND VLD TERMINALS. DHN
AND ABY TERMINALS MAY ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE LESSER. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
AFFECTING THE ABY TERMINAL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME MODERATE IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WATERS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, NORTHWEST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY OVER
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DRY AIR WILL SHUT DOWN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN MOST DISTRICTS
WEDNESDAY. MOISTER AIR WILL START TO RETURN ON THURSDAY. BY THIS
WEEKEND, WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A HEAT WAVE HIGH, WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE RUNOFF
ISSUES BENEATH THE CORE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY,
FEW IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
THE SHOAL AT MOSSY HEAD RECENTLY FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE, SO WE
WILL SOON BE ABLE TO DROP THE FLOOD WARNING THERE. THE FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE CONTINUES, WITH
MINOR FLOODING FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHER RIVERS ARE
RUNNING IN ACTION STAGE, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE ALAPAHA,
OCHLOCKONEE, SPRING CREEK, THE APALACHICOLA, CHIPOLA, AND THE PEA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 72 91 71 / 60 10 0 10
PANAMA CITY 89 75 90 74 / 50 20 0 20
DOTHAN 88 68 88 69 / 40 0 10 20
ALBANY 90 68 88 69 / 30 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 91 70 90 70 / 70 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 94 75 94 72 / 10 20 0 0
APALACHICOLA 89 77 90 76 / 20 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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