019
FXUS62 KTAE 232318
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
718 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. BE READY TO HEAD INDOORS WHEN STORMS
APPROACH.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT WALTON, BAY, AND GULF
COUNTY BEACHES EARLY TONIGHT. PAY ATTENTION TO THE BEACH FLAGS
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. DOUBLE RED FLAGS MEAN THE WATER IS CLOSED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST ROBUST IN THE FL AND SOUTHWEST GA COUNTIES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WITH
A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON TAP BEFORE MORE SEASONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN
MODELED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL TEND TO DRY US OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BUILDING HEAT, IF DAILY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS
SUPPRESSED, THAT MAY LEAD TO MORE HEAT-RELATED ISSUES.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT WALTON, BAY, AND GULF
COUNTY BEACHES INTO EARLY TONIGHT. FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF BEACH
SAFETY OFFICIALS AND HEED THE BEACH FLAGS. SWIMMING IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED UNDER RED FLAGS AND DOUBLE RED FLAGS MEAN THE WATER
IS CLOSED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A FEW STORMS ACROSS FL AND FAR S GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME MODERATE IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WATERS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE WITHIN THE SEABREEZE ZONE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY, DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH ANY STORMS LEADING TO BRIEFLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DRIER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT WITH MIN
AFTERNOON RH DIPPING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEND TO BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING MORE INLAND PROGRESS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTER A DRIER DAY WEDNESDAY, DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE, GIVEN A POTENTIAL BREAK FROM DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FL
COUNTIES.
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE
(SR 20) WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECAST. PORTIONS OF THE OCHLOCKONEE,
APALACHICOLA AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AUCILLA, SPRING CREEK, MOSSY HEAD, AND
CHIPOLA RIVERS ARE EITHER IN ACTION STAGE OR EXPECTED TO REACH
ACTION STAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THESE BASINS
RESPOND TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 91 71 92 / 20 0 20 40
PANAMA CITY 75 90 75 89 / 10 10 20 30
DOTHAN 68 89 70 88 / 0 0 20 40
ALBANY 67 88 69 90 / 0 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 69 90 69 93 / 10 0 0 30
CROSS CITY 75 95 72 95 / 10 0 10 20
APALACHICOLA 77 90 76 89 / 10 10 10 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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