651
FXUS62 KTAE 240558
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
158 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT WALTON, BAY, AND GULF
COUNTY BEACHES EARLY TONIGHT. PAY ATTENTION TO THE BEACH FLAGS
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. DOUBLE RED FLAGS MEAN THE WATER IS CLOSED.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, AND PARTS OF THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HEAT WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
AN OUT-OF-SEASON COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH OUR ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA COUNTIES. IT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF I-10 LATER THIS
MORNING. ALREADY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE SHOWING UP
NORTH OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR. THOSE DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH PAST THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT, BUT THE BRIEF FORAY WITH DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
THE HEAT INDEX FROM SEPARATING MUCH FROM THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE SHUTDOWN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING ACROSS NE LOUISIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MAKE ESE PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MS
AND INTO AL. BY THE TIME IT TRIES ALABAMA WIREGRASS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE, THE STORMS WILL BE FALLING APART AS THE CLUSTER
ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR OVER OUR REGION AND THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MINORS OUT.
THOUGH THOSE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY ENTER SE AL AND NW FL
EARLY THURSDAY, IT WILL START A TREND TOWARD RE-MOISTENING THE AIR
MASS. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A RESPECTABLE
SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON STORMS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY. OVER THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A STRONG 500 MB HIGH WILL EXPAND AND
RETROGRADE FROM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A STRONG STANDALONE
500 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION, EFFECTIVELY
ANCHORING A HEAT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THOUGH WE WILL NOT
BE UNDER THE MOST EXTREME PART OF THE HEAT WAVE, WE WILL
NONETHELESS SEE OUR TEMPERATURES RISE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MAJOR CATEGORY OF THE NWS HEAT RISK WILL COVER AN INCREASING
PORTION OF THE REGION EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
PLACES.
THE HEAT WAVE HIGH WILL FULLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-SOUTH OR
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. FURTHEST SOUTHEAST AND
FURTHEST FROM THE CORE OF THE HEAT WAVE, SOME LESS HOT MARITIME
INFLUENCED AIR COULD SPREAD IN BY TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN
MCS OR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE A
VIGOROUS ROUND OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PROLIFIC LIGHTNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
A BRIEF TURN TO NORTHERLY BREEZES IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL AGAIN
BECOME DOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON AND ANCHOR ITSELF IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY, SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OVER THE OPEN GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A DRIER AIR MASS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
DISTRICTS IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTH-MOVING OUT-OF-SEASON COLD FRONT.
IN FACT, THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY TODAY TO SUPPORT THE USUAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, A HEAT WAVE HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., PUSHING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND BRINGING MAJOR HEAT
IMPACTS FOR THOSE WORKING OUTDOORS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT
BRUCE. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY AND THE CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 71 92 73 / 0 10 50 20
PANAMA CITY 90 75 89 77 / 10 20 30 20
DOTHAN 88 70 88 71 / 0 20 60 10
ALBANY 88 70 90 72 / 0 10 50 20
VALDOSTA 90 70 92 73 / 0 0 30 20
CROSS CITY 95 73 95 75 / 0 0 20 0
APALACHICOLA 89 76 88 78 / 20 10 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 12 AM EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR FLZ112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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