869
FXUS62 KTAE 090611
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
211 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOME TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDICES (108 F) ARE
POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
AIR- CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
KEEPS SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES IN PLAY TODAY. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 110 ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER, SOME CONVECTION, AND THE SPOTTY
NATURE OF THESE HEAT INDICES, HAVE HELD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY
TODAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DRIEST AND WARMEST AFTERNOON OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING ATLANTIC RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, A
STEADILY BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS PWATS INCREASE TO WELL
ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WELL-ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING RELIEF TO
RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. USED THE
LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE TO FINE-TUNE CONVECTIVE TIMING. COVERAGE STILL
APPEARS TOO SPOTTY TO MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA/-TSRA.
THINKING MAY CHANGE BY THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE SUMMERTIME ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING MOSTLY
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES TO THE WATERS. AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SEA BREEZE WILL FURTHER INCREASE NEARSHORE WINDS EACH DAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BRINGING
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INLAND. A WETTER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
RELATIVELY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, OUTSIDE OF HIGHER DISPERSIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES, WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50% RANGE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT LOCALIZED INCREASES ACROSS FL DUE
TO THE SEABREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED MOST AFTERNOONS. MAIN CONCERNS
OUTSIDE FIRE WEATHER WILL BE HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH POCKETS REACHING NEAR 110 F. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINS EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
LOWER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A SLOWER-MOVING THUNDERSTORM PASSES
OVER. LOWER TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 94 76 95 75 / 30 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 92 80 92 79 / 30 10 20 10
DOTHAN 94 75 94 74 / 20 10 40 0
ALBANY 95 76 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 97 75 96 75 / 10 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 96 76 97 77 / 10 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 90 80 90 80 / 20 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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