683
FXUS62 KTAE 101309
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
909 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 906 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO
INDOORS!
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR- CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS STRETCHES FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY, FL UP TO
ALBANY, GA. A WEAK H5 TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THERE SHOULD
SUPPORT A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SO DID
INCREASE POPS SOME. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL ALLOW DRY AIR ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, REDUCING DEW POINTS AND INHIBITING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THE REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY TODAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH FEEL-LIKE TEMPS
IN THE 103-107F RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A WET PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST GETS
LEFT BEHIND BY A QUICK MOVING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
"PIECE OF ENERGY" GETS HUNG UP AROUND AR/MO/TN SUNDAY THROUGH MID-
WEEK BEFORE BEING PICKED UP BY THE MAIN FLOW. AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST IT'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURE WILL ALSO DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WARM MOIST AIR GETS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AND PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2
INCHES. THE WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE REGION HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN TAKES OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR KDHN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
EARLY SUNDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. DAILY INCREASES TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO
THE SEABREEZE. A BREAK IN EARLY MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED AS A WETTER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
RELATIVELY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, OUTSIDE OF HIGHER DISPERSIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES, WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50% RANGE TODAY AND
TOMORROW BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 55% ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE INCREASING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT LOCALIZED INCREASES ACROSS FL DUE
TO THE SEABREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED MOST AFTERNOONS. MAIN CONCERNS
OUTSIDE FIRE WEATHER WILL BE HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH POCKETS REACHING NEAR 108
F.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS ARE
POINTING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 96 76 97 76 / 30 10 50 10
PANAMA CITY 92 80 93 80 / 10 10 20 10
DOTHAN 96 75 96 75 / 30 10 40 20
ALBANY 96 76 96 75 / 20 10 30 20
VALDOSTA 98 75 98 76 / 20 10 30 20
CROSS CITY 98 76 97 77 / 10 10 30 10
APALACHICOLA 91 80 92 81 / 10 0 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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