541
FXUS62 KTAE 101934
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR- CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF, WHILE AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLIDING SOUTH ON
THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A LAYER OF DRIER AIR FROM 850-600MB IN PLACE
CURRENTLY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. AFTERNOON PWATS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1.8-2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE WITH 20-40%
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 POSSIBLY REACHING
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103-107F. ISOLATED AREAS
MAY HAVE A SHORT DURATION HEAT INDICES APPROACH 110F, GENERALLY NEAR
THE PANHANDLE COAST.
A WETTER PATTERN EMERGES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LOW THEN RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE TO ARRIVE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
2-2.25 INCHES. AS WELL, A SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US
PROVIDING AN EXTRA SPARK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY TO 50-80% AND DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN RAINFALL AND
CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN A FEW DEGREES
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH SUBSEQUENT HEAT
INDICES 98-104F.
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
DISSIPATES. RAIN CHANCES DROP BACK TO 20-40% AND HIGHS THURSDAY
INCREASE BACK TO THE MID 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE INTRODUCED A
PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR KTLH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE PROB30S
FOR KABY AND KVLD BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z OR SO, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE STORMS PROGRESSING THAT FAR EAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
EARLY SUNDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. DAILY INCREASES TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO
THE SEABREEZE. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MARGINALLY HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR
OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA SATURDAY, OTHERWISE, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
LOCALIZED INCREASES ACROSS FL DUE TO THE SEABREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED
MOST AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103-107F SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 110F FOR SHORT PERIODS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WON'T BE QUITE AS HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE POINTING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 97 76 95 / 0 30 10 60
PANAMA CITY 79 93 80 93 / 0 20 20 30
DOTHAN 74 96 75 94 / 0 20 10 50
ALBANY 75 96 76 95 / 10 10 10 50
VALDOSTA 75 98 76 96 / 10 10 20 40
CROSS CITY 76 97 77 96 / 10 30 20 30
APALACHICOLA 79 91 81 91 / 0 10 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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