470
FXUS62 KTAE 111713
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
113 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR- CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF OUR FLORIDA
COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN ROW OF GEORGIA COUNTIES AS HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 108 TO 111 DEGREES.
ADDITIONALLY, ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND TO GET IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST CAM GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CURRENTLY, MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY
MORNING. A RIBBON OF HIGH DCAPE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH VALUES OF 800-1200 J/KG. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TODAY COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND REDUCE DCAPE
VALUES, HOWEVER THERE IS A RISK THAT DCAPE REMAINS HIGH WHILE
INSTABILITY INCREASES AT THE LOW LEVELS GIVEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY SET US UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE MICROBURSTS AGAIN TODAY. THE SPC HAS MOST OF THE
REGION OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY, FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE WIND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH FEEL-LIKE TEMPS IN
THE 103-107F RANGE, ISOLATED AREAS MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE 108-110F.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A WET PATTERN BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GETS LEFT BEHIND BY A QUICK MOVING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH-
NORTHEAST. THIS "PIECE OF ENERGY" GETS HUNG UP AROUND AR/MO/TN
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE BEING PICKED UP BY THE MAIN FLOW. AS
IT MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IT'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE SLOWING
DOWN AND STALLING THEN DIFFUSING AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR
GETS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AND PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2 INCHES. THE WPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE REGION HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER
WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TAKES OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS STEADILY HEAD
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S AT MOST
AERODROMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. A PROB30 WAS
CONSIDERED FOR KABY, BUT CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE WEREN'T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME; IF THERE WAS ONE, IT WOULD BE
BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND TO
NEAR KTLH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND OTHER AERODROMES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZE IS FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. DAILY INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MARGINALLY HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR
OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
LOCALIZED INCREASES ACROSS FL DUE TO THE SEABREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED
MOST AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103-107F TODAY WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 110F FOR SHORT PERIODS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WON'T BE QUITE AS HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS ARE
POINTING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 96 76 94 75 / 50 40 60 30
PANAMA CITY 93 81 92 78 / 30 20 50 80
DOTHAN 96 75 94 73 / 30 30 60 60
ALBANY 97 77 95 73 / 10 20 50 70
VALDOSTA 97 76 96 75 / 30 30 40 30
CROSS CITY 96 77 95 77 / 40 20 30 30
APALACHICOLA 91 81 90 79 / 20 10 50 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ009>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ155>160.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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