682
FXUS62 KTAE 111920
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED INTO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 101-107F WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 POTENTIALLY REACHING 110F. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR- CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS AND
ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. THE BERMUDA RIDGE IS HANGING ON, ATLEAST INTO EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. AREA CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW SOME DRY AIR IN THE 850-
600MB LAYER BUT DECREASING WITH WESTWARD EXTENT; THIS LEADS TO DCAPE
VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG ROUGHLY WHERE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
TODAY (SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH I-75 AND THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SEABREEZE INITIATING
CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN
SPREADING NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
A WETTER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST CURRENT;Y CUTS OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY THEN DRIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWA COUNTIES BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE BERMUDA RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP WHILE
PWATS INCREASE TOWARDS THE 2-2.3" RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS
MONDAY CORRESPONDING WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES (70-80% AREA
WIDE). SPC CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. WPC ALSO CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT
RISK MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW TRENDS EVOLVE AND IF FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS INCREASE. AFTER TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO
NEAR/BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TAKES OVER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T QUITE BE AS HIGH AS DAYS PAST WITH READINGS
IN THE MID 90S BUT THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN BIG BEND SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
'COOLER' WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES BUMP BACK UP TO THE MID 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS STEADILY HEAD
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S AT MOST
AERODROMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. A PROB30 WAS
CONSIDERED FOR KABY, BUT CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE WEREN'T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME; IF THERE WAS ONE, IT WOULD BE
BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND TO
NEAR KTLH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND OTHER AERODROMES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZE IS FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DECREASE AFTERWARDS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103-107F SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 110F FOR SHORT PERIODS, MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WON'T BE
QUITE AS HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE POINTING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVERINE FLOODING IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH
DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 93 75 89 / 40 70 40 80
PANAMA CITY 80 91 78 88 / 20 50 80 80
DOTHAN 75 93 73 87 / 30 50 70 80
ALBANY 76 94 73 89 / 20 40 60 80
VALDOSTA 75 95 74 91 / 30 30 30 80
CROSS CITY 77 94 77 92 / 20 60 50 70
APALACHICOLA 80 90 79 88 / 10 60 70 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ009>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ155>160.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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