766
FXUS62 KTAE 112306
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
706 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED INTO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 101-107F WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 POTENTIALLY REACHING 110F. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR- CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS AND
ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. THE BERMUDA RIDGE IS HANGING ON, AT LEAST INTO EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS HELPING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING. AREA CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW SOME DRY AIR IN THE
850- 600MB LAYER BUT DECREASING WITH WESTWARD EXTENT; THIS LEADS
TO DCAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG ROUGHLY WHERE SPC HAS THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY (SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH
I-75 AND THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE
SEABREEZE INITIATING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN SPREADING NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER
THIS EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER
STORMS AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
A WETTER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST CURRENT;Y CUTS OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY THEN DRIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWA COUNTIES BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE BERMUDA RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP WHILE
PWATS INCREASE TOWARDS THE 2-2.3" RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS
MONDAY CORRESPONDING WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES (70-80% AREA
WIDE). SPC CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. WPC ALSO CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT
RISK MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW TRENDS EVOLVE AND IF FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS INCREASE. AFTER TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO
NEAR/BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TAKES OVER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T QUITE BE AS HIGH AS DAYS PAST WITH READINGS
IN THE MID 90S BUT THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS MAY
NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN BIG BEND SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
'COOLER' WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES BUMP BACK UP TO THE MID 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE TLH AND VLD
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 00Z-02Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT/CALM VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE DAY TOMORROW WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TAF
SITES. HOWEVER, THE BETTER CHANCES ARE FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(I.E. ECP, TLH, AND VLD). COULD HAVE WENT WITH A PREVAILING GROUP
BUT, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT POOR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THESE STORMS WITH GUSTY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DECREASE AFTERWARDS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103-107F SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 110F FOR SHORT PERIODS, MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WON'T BE
QUITE AS HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE POINTING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVERINE FLOODING IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH
DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 93 75 89 / 40 70 40 80
PANAMA CITY 80 91 78 88 / 20 50 80 80
DOTHAN 75 93 73 87 / 30 50 70 80
ALBANY 76 94 73 89 / 20 40 60 80
VALDOSTA 75 95 74 91 / 30 30 30 80
CROSS CITY 77 94 77 92 / 20 60 50 70
APALACHICOLA 80 90 79 88 / 10 60 70 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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