873
FXUS62 KTAE 121035
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
635 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED INTO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 101-107F WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS, SOUTH OF I-10, POTENTIALLY REACHING 110F
BRIEFLY. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED
PLACES, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS
AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WET PATTERN BEGINS TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GETS LEFT BEHIND BY A QUICK MOVING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH-
NORTHEAST. THIS "PIECE OF ENERGY" GETS HUNG UP AROUND AR/MO/TN TODAY
THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE BEING PICKED UP BY THE MAIN FLOW. AS IT
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IT'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE SLOWING
DOWN AND STALLING THEN DIFFUSING AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR GETS
ADVECTED NORTHWARD AND PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2 INCHES. THE WPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE REGION HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL AREA
WITHIN OUR REGION IS WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AFTER
WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO COME DOWN TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TAKES OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE
WINDS. WHILE THE DCAPE TODAY DOESN'T SEEM TO BE AS HIGH TODAY AS IT
HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, IT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TODAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 90S WITH FEEL-LIKE
TEMPS IN THE 103-107F RANGE, ISOLATED AREAS MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
108-110F. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
TEMPS COOL DOWN FOR A COUPLE DAYS AS THE INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
MIDWEEK. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND AT THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA COUNTIES AND FAR SOUTH GA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ALONG THE
NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DECREASE AFTERWARDS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 103-107F TODAY WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 110F FOR SHORT PERIODS, MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WON'T BE
QUITE AS HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS ARE POINTING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 75 87 73 / 60 20 80 30
PANAMA CITY 91 78 87 76 / 50 60 80 80
DOTHAN 93 73 86 71 / 40 50 70 40
ALBANY 95 73 87 71 / 30 50 80 60
VALDOSTA 95 74 89 72 / 30 20 70 50
CROSS CITY 93 77 91 75 / 50 30 60 40
APALACHICOLA 90 79 87 78 / 50 40 70 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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