952
FXUS62 KTAE 121933
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED INTO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
EMERALD COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 101-107F WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS, SOUTH OF I-10, POTENTIALLY REACHING 110F
BRIEFLY. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED
PLACES, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS
AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 90 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS THANKS TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS WE RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OVER
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
A CLOSER INSPECTION OF THINGS SHOWS AN H5 LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND
AND DRIFTING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AROUND A SPRAWLING H5
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ITS PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PWATS) ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2.0" TO 2.2", OR NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-JULY, WHICH MEANS VERY HEAVY RAIN, A QUICK
INCH OR TWO IN A SHORT TIME, CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MATERIALIZE OVER LAND OR
JUST OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, THAT CAN REALLY PILE UP THE RAIN IN EXCESS OF 3"-5".
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL AREA ALONG THE EMERALD COAST HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS, PERHAPS A A WAKE LOW, FORMING
BEHIND MONDAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EMERALD
COAST AND OUR WESTERN GULF WATERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF
DRYING BETWEEN 1000-850MB BEFORE SATURATING NEAR THE SURFACE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEY THEN SHOW A RAPIDLY
DRYING SURFACE IN THE NEXT HOUR AND A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE UP TO 850-800 MB, WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 45
KNOTS. THAT'S ENOUGH TO BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE RAIN IS OVER. IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 18 TO
24 HOURS.
THE WEAK H5 LOW TRUDGES WEST AS THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TAKES THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH IT
AND WE'RE LEFT WITH MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH MID 90S FOR HIGHS
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND ANY RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SHRA AND TSRA MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH SE AL AND
FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND INTO SW GA. TIMED TSRA INTO DHN/ABY/VLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE TSRA IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
AT ECP/TLH. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS
WITH A BREAK UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE PANHANDLE COAST THEN NUMEROUS TSRA INTO MID/LATE
MORNING MONDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE INITIAL LINE OF
STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND FRQ LIGHTNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A BRIEF BOUT OF FRESH TO PERHAPS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED EAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ALONG
THE NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DECREASE AFTERWARDS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WETTER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH TRANSPORT WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5" TO 2.0" ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THOSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD ECLIPSE
5", ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EMERALD COAST WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF THAT
HAPPENING IS 30 TO 50%. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED,
HOWEVER ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 87 72 89 / 20 80 50 60
PANAMA CITY 77 87 76 88 / 70 80 70 60
DOTHAN 73 85 70 87 / 50 80 40 70
ALBANY 73 86 71 87 / 40 80 40 70
VALDOSTA 74 88 71 89 / 10 80 50 60
CROSS CITY 76 90 74 91 / 50 80 70 60
APALACHICOLA 78 86 77 88 / 70 90 80 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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