850
FXUS62 KTAE 131746
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
146 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED INTO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TODAY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG
THE EMERALD COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST US. IT'S ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PREVAIL. PWATS
IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE PUMPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ALONG MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF TRAINING
CONVECTION. THE WPC CURRENTLY HAS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FL
PANHANDLE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY WITH
FORECAST TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY IN PLACES WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH
POOR DRAINAGE. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. EACH AFTERNOON THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL STRENGTHEN AN LLJ OF AROUND 20 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS IN INSTANCES OF EFFICIENT
MIXING WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN AS THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE SHORT TERM RETROGRADES TO THE WEST.
DAYTIME HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH BANDING OF
STRONGER CONVECTION WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z THEN
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z OVER THE GULF WATERS THEN PUSHING INLAND
8-12Z INTO THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ALSO, MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM DHN-ABY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH
MID MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A BRIEF BOUT OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA, WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH-
END CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO AROUND 15
KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE
SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MID WEEK THEN
DECREASE AFTERWARDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A WETTER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH TRANSPORT WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS ARE POINTING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING
STORMS. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. THERE'S A
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL
PANHANDLE WHERE THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 72 88 73 / 80 40 50 20
PANAMA CITY 86 75 88 77 / 80 80 70 50
DOTHAN 84 71 87 71 / 80 40 60 30
ALBANY 86 71 87 71 / 80 50 60 50
VALDOSTA 88 71 87 72 / 70 30 60 40
CROSS CITY 89 75 90 75 / 80 30 70 20
APALACHICOLA 86 77 88 79 / 80 60 80 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ735-751-752-
770-772.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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