554
FXUS62 KTAE 131954
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TODAY FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND ALL OF SE ALABAMA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL RANGE FROM 98-
105F WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS, SOUTH OF I-10, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 108F BRIEFLY. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
AIR-CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN IS FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE EMERALD COAST AND PUSHES
EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BLOSSOM WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF 2" TO 2.3" PWATS OVER FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE'S ALSO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850MB
THAT'S FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-45 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY SHOWERS THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS
EVENING, ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE EMERALD COAST OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITHIN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO DAYTIME HEATING. PWATS
WILL REMAIN HIGH, OR AROUND 2", SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. DCAPE ISN'T FORECAST TO BE TOO TERRIBLY HIGH BETWEEN 500-
800 J/KG. STILL, SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH NIGHT.
THE H5 LOW TRUDGES WEST AS IT MOVES AROUND A SPRAWLING H5 RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. AS IT DOES SO, IT TAKES A LOT
OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. THIS TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE
WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEKEND, A BIT OF H5 VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO BE LEFT BEHIND OVER
THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. WHERE THIS AREA OF VORTICITY EVENTUALLY
SETTLES WILL BE IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF IT HANGS OUT OVER LAND, IT'LL LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IF IT IS ABLE TO SNEAK INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THEN A WEAK LOW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN-MAKER FOR SOMEONE ALONG THE GULF
COAST DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. STILL LOTS OF TIME TO
MONITOR MODEL AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.|
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH BANDING OF
STRONGER CONVECTION WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z THEN
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z OVER THE GULF WATERS THEN PUSHING INLAND
8-12Z INTO THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ALSO, MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM DHN-ABY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH
MID MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR THE WATER
WEST OF APALACHICOLA WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY BREEZES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING AFTER WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA DISTRICTS, THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE SUMMER-LIKE SHOWERS ANDS STORMS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN.
FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT
DISPERSIONS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE WET PATTERN LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS FORECAST TO FALL ALONG THE EMERALD COAST WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1"
TO 2" OF RAIN IS FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5" OF RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THINGS,
THOUGH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 88 73 91 / 50 60 40 50
PANAMA CITY 75 88 77 90 / 80 80 50 20
DOTHAN 71 87 71 89 / 50 60 50 30
ALBANY 71 87 71 89 / 60 70 60 40
VALDOSTA 72 88 71 91 / 40 60 60 50
CROSS CITY 74 90 74 92 / 60 80 60 30
APALACHICOLA 77 87 78 89 / 80 80 50 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ735-751-752-
770-772.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page