487
FXUS62 KTAE 141138
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
738 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, MAY LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING CONCERNS.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL RANGE FROM 98-
105F WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS, SOUTH OF I-10, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 108F BRIEFLY. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
AIR-CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A BUBBLE OF DRIER AIR (PWATS < 2 INCH) MOVES IN BEHIND THE ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING LEADING TO A POTENTIAL BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHER PWAT AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST,
PRIMARILY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND CONTINUES IT'S GRADUAL WESTWARD TRACK. WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
LOW, WE COULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, AGAIN
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA. MESOSCALE FEATURES
MAY CAUSE ACTIVITY TO SPILLOVER INTO SW GEORGIA AND THE FL BIG BEND,
EVEN WITH LOWER PWATS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
A CONCERN TODAY WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WPC HAS THE REGION UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WE'LL SEE ACTIVITY
WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE ITS FORCING. ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, ALONG THE LAND
BREEZE.
DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FROM WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND, AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE SHORT TERM RETROGRADES TO THE WEST.
DAYTIME HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE REFINED THE TIMING OF THE PROB30 GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AROUND THE TAF SITES LATER TODAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
BREEZES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY BEFORE DECREASING AFTER WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA DISTRICTS, THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE SUMMER-LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN. FAIR TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 73 92 74 / 50 20 30 10
PANAMA CITY 88 77 90 79 / 50 40 10 10
DOTHAN 87 70 90 72 / 70 30 20 10
ALBANY 87 71 90 73 / 60 40 30 10
VALDOSTA 88 71 91 73 / 70 40 20 10
CROSS CITY 90 74 93 76 / 50 20 30 10
APALACHICOLA 87 78 90 80 / 60 30 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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