019
FXUS62 KTAE 141956
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
356 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING CONCERNS IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY IN FLORIDA WILL RANGE FROM 98-
106F AND INCREASE GRADUALLY AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED PLACES,
WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS AND
ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A SLUG OF MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF MAY REACH OUR FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RETROGRADES, RAIN
CHANCES WILL DROP ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FL BIG BEND FAVORED DUE TO
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS IN WESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET THIS
WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THAT POSSIBILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE EITHER PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
VSBYS UNDERNEATH HEAVIER STORMS. BEYOND THIS, VFR PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. LATE OVERNIGHT, SHRA
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE ECP AND HAVE VCSH HERE INTO
MID MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
BREEZES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY BEFORE DECREASING AFTER WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA DISTRICTS, THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SUMMER-LIKE SHOWERS ANDS STORMS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN. GOOD
TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOG CONCERNS AND OTHER REMARKS...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1-1.5 INCHES AT THE
COAST TO A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS OUR GA AND AL COUNTIES.
RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 92 74 93 / 20 40 10 10
PANAMA CITY 77 90 79 92 / 30 20 10 10
DOTHAN 70 90 72 91 / 10 20 10 10
ALBANY 71 91 73 92 / 40 20 20 20
VALDOSTA 71 91 73 92 / 30 30 10 20
CROSS CITY 74 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 20
APALACHICOLA 78 90 79 91 / 10 20 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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