650
FXUS62 KTAE 150549
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
149 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 95- 105F AND
INCREASE GRADUALLY AREA-WIDE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
AFTER A COUPLE ACTIVE DAYS, THE UPPER-LOW THAT WAS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HAS RETROGRADED OUT TOWARDS ARKANSAS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD. AS WE LOSE ITS INFLUENCE WE'LL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING LOWER PWAT AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AND
SUPPRESS CONVECTION, WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, A PV CLUSTER MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF,
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST, LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHS (INCREASING WIND SHEAR), THIS
PV CLUSTER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO ORGANIZE INTO ANYTHING OTHER
THAN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.
WE'LL SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO PREVAILING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS LOOK TO TAKE A HIT EACH AFTERNOON AS LOWER PWAT AIR
MIXES IN, KEEPING HEAT INDICIES GENERALLY IN THE 95-105 DEGREE RANGE
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE UP TO 107 DEGREES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND, HEAT
INDICIES MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES RETURN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN. GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS
ARE FORECAST TODAY AND THURSDAY. OTHER THAN HIGH DISPERSIONS THERE
ARE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE UNDER DOWNPOURS. RIVERINE FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 93 75 / 40 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 90 79 92 79 / 20 10 10 10
DOTHAN 90 72 91 74 / 20 10 10 0
ALBANY 91 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10
VALDOSTA 91 73 92 74 / 30 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 93 76 94 77 / 20 10 20 20
APALACHICOLA 90 79 91 80 / 20 10 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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