149
FXUS62 KTAE 151933
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
ANY IMPACTS. PLEASE CHECK FUTURE UPDATES AT HURRICANES.GOV AS
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A DAY AT 2 AM
AND PM AND 8 AM AND PM.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY, WITH RAIN
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES
THIS EVENING. A PV CLUSTER NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE ALLOWING FORCING FOR ASCENT TO BE FAVORED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS
IT DEPENDS ON WHETHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF. SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS DEVELOP NOTHING. OTHERS LIKE THE
EURO DO, ALTHOUGH THE 12Z RUN IS LESS BULLISH THAN THE 00Z.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
DEVELOPMENT THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 20% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. UNTIL BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS APPEARS, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE. WHETHER ANYTHING DEVELOPS IN THE GULF, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT WE WILL SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN. GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION
IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
FOG CONCERNS AND OTHER REMARKS...NO WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. THESE ARE THE AREAS THAT ARE STILL IN
DROUGHT SO THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE BENEFICIAL RAIN. RIVERINE
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS IF THE LOW DEVELOPS, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 92 75 93 / 10 20 30 60
PANAMA CITY 78 92 79 93 / 10 20 10 50
DOTHAN 72 92 74 92 / 20 10 10 40
ALBANY 73 91 74 93 / 10 20 20 50
VALDOSTA 73 91 73 93 / 10 30 20 60
CROSS CITY 75 92 75 93 / 20 50 30 70
APALACHICOLA 79 91 80 92 / 10 20 20 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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