106
FXUS62 KTAE 301721
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
121 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE,
BIG BEND, AND OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF AL/GA COUNTIES WHERE THE HEAT
INDEX WILL RANGE FROM 108-112F. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, FREQUENT
BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS, AND CHECK ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
A MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL ON FRIDAY.
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, IN
ADDITION TO PROLIFIC LIGHTNING. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK.
THERE IS A MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE FL COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD MAY LEAD
TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHILE NOT AS HOT AS YESTERDAY, HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL YIELD HAZARDOUS HEAT AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. DESPITE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES,
EXPECT CLOUD COVER/THUNDERSTORMS TO HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR
THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, BIG BEND, OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF GA
COUNTIES, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BETWEEN 11 AM ET/10 AM CT AND 7 PM ET/6 PM CT TODAY,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 112F. THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 50
PERCENT) CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
AREAL EXTENT LOOKS SMALLER. THAT SHOULD END THIS PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS HEAT AS WET/COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH DCAPE, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND SEASONABLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, IN ADDITION TO PROLIFIC LIGHTNING.
ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED, WET/COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND,
CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN SETS UP
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT EVENTUALLY
CUTS OFF FROM THE JET STREAM. WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW IN PLACE,
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO GETS
UNDERWAY BY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. PAY
ATTENTION TO THE THE BEACH FLAGS AND FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF
BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KABY, WITH FLORIDA SITES
HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES. SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO
THE GA/AL SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT LOW AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. KEEP AN
EYE TO THE SKY, HEED ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS, AND HEAD TO SAFE
HARBOR IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. MODERATE WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD TEND TO BECOME ONSHORE WITHIN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH DAY WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW (20%) PROBABILITY OF
FRESH BREEZES AND HIGHER SEAS THIS WEEKEND. A WET PATTERN WILL GET
UNDERWAY THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING FIRE CONCERNS LIMITED AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH. PROBABILITIES FOR A WETTING RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS REMAIN VERY HIGH. MAIN ITEMS TO WATCH FOR WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY TODAY
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE SEABREEZE MAKING INLAND PROGRESS BOTH DAYS.
THE ONLY THING TO WATCH INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT. IF IT STALLS OUT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, SOME LOW
END FIRE CONCERNS COULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
A WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAINFALL GREATER
THAN 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE FL COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATE INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA
RIVERS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 92 74 89 / 50 70 40 90
PANAMA CITY 78 90 77 88 / 60 80 80 90
DOTHAN 74 93 74 89 / 40 50 40 90
ALBANY 74 94 74 91 / 20 30 20 80
VALDOSTA 73 95 73 93 / 40 40 20 80
CROSS CITY 75 91 74 91 / 80 70 80 90
APALACHICOLA 78 88 78 87 / 60 80 70 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ114.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ155>161.
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ068-069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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