899
FXUS62 KTAE 311723
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
123 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- A WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES, MAINLY IN THE FL BIG BEND
COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALL RIVER SYSTEMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE
SLIDE ON THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE DOTHAN TO CROSS CITY LINE, WITH LESSER
VALUES TO THE NORTHEAST IN GEORGIA. POPS RANGE FROM 60-80 PERCENT
IN FL/AL WITH 20-50% POPS IN GEORGIA. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED ALL
OF THE REGION EXCEPT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WE HAVE FORECAST PWATS UP TO
2.25" IN THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG, MODEST LAPSE RATES, AND DCAPE VALUES ABOVE
1100 J/KG. THERE WILL BE A DRY LAYER IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT WE
WILL BE WORKING WITH WHICH MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS ALSO THE MATTER THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE FL
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. DECIDED TO FOREGO AN ADVISORY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BRING VALUES DOWN BUT BE MINDFUL
OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF STATES BRINGING AN EXPECTANT ABUNDANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE SE U.S.
PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE UP TO 2.5" THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME DO NOT
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP FOR THE
WEEKEND, HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE WPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS THE CWA HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
LONG TERM, THE AREA MAY RECEIVE 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DROP OFF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
TEMPS FROM RISING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE STABLE IN THE LOW-MID
70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BEGIN WARMING BACK TO THE MID 90S BY
MIDWEEK AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND
LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS. A LULL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH SOME
STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MAINLY
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 KTS AS WE APPROACH SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF
3-5 FEET, ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY, WINDS
CALM DOWN TO AROUND 10 KTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES FROM
THE NEARBY TROUGH WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AFTERNOON
DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
REMAINING BELOW 5000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE CASE OF
STORMS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN, ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
A LOW-END FIRE CONCERN MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND OVER OUR
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA DISTRICTS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS, ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6-8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING. OUR RIVERS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVERINE
FLOODING, BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING OUR SMALLER RIVERS FOR ANY RISES
IN THE COMING DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 86 73 84 / 50 90 50 100
PANAMA CITY 77 87 77 86 / 70 90 70 90
DOTHAN 74 87 73 86 / 40 90 70 90
ALBANY 74 88 73 86 / 30 80 60 90
VALDOSTA 73 91 72 87 / 30 80 50 90
CROSS CITY 74 89 73 85 / 80 90 80 90
APALACHICOLA 77 85 78 84 / 70 90 60 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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