582
FXUS62 KTAE 010525
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
125 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, PWATS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 2.2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE, SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LAND BREEZE OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS, THEN MOVE INLAND AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS PROBABLY
WOULDN'T MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS AND COULD STALL NEAR THE COAST,
RESULTING IN POTENTIAL TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE BAY/GULF COUNTY COAST AS
WELL AS THE TAYLOR/DIXIE COUNTY COAST. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH STARTING AT 5 AM ET/4 AM CT
TONIGHT FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PANAMA CITY TO MAYO
LINE. MORE DISCUSSION ON THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. GIVEN THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. BUT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR AS GREAT AS COMMUNITIES ALONG THE
COAST.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MUGGY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
70S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE HELD TO THE 80S THANKS TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN DEEP
TROPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH PWATS STILL AROUND 2.2 TO 2.5
INCHES. WITH THE SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT, THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL START TO SPREAD EASTWARD AS WELL INTO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH THE HEAVY RAIN BEING MORE
ISOLATED FARTHER INLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO COVER THE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MORE
DISCUSSION ON THE RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
BY TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WEAKEN, AND THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN A SLOW DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BACK TO
SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THIS ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND CURRENTLY, DEVELOPMENT
WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME. EACH TAF SITE HAS SHRA AND TSRA BASED ON HIGH
RES MODELS IN ADDITION TO TIMING OUT IMPACTS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH A FEW
BRIEF GUSTS AROUND STRONGER STORMS. MVFR OR HIGH IFR MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY HEAVIER CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH SOME STORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MODERATE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BUILD IN RESPONSE TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DECREASING SEAS INTO
MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A VERY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
AREA, LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO FIRE CONCERN. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 MPH EACH DAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A VERY WET PATTERN WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUITE THIS MORNING HAS BECOME MORE CONCERNING
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE
COASTAL PORTIONS OF BAY AND GULF COUNTIES WITH A LOWER THREAT
ALONG THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTY COASTS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEGINS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE BIG BEND SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOMES MORE
CONCENTRATED IN THE BIG BEND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FOR THIS REASON, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ROUGHLY PANAMA
CITY TO MAYO SOUTHWARD BEGINNING AT 5 AM ET/4 AM CT SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 3 AND 6
INCHES, BUT ISOLATED REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THAT SOME OF THESE AREAS HAVE
SEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE LAST 2 DAYS, THE GROUND IS BECOMING MORE
SATURATED, AND SOME AREAS ARE NOW MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA, MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ON THE RIVERS, MOST OF OUR RIVERS WILL BE IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT THE
COASTAL RIVERS COULD SEE RISES DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN
ULTIMATELY FALLS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 83 73 86 / 60 100 70 80
PANAMA CITY 77 86 76 88 / 80 90 80 60
DOTHAN 73 87 72 89 / 70 80 20 30
ALBANY 73 86 72 88 / 70 90 40 50
VALDOSTA 72 86 71 86 / 60 100 70 80
CROSS CITY 73 84 72 85 / 80 90 90 90
APALACHICOLA 77 84 76 85 / 80 90 90 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ012-014-015-027>029-034-112-114-115-
118-127-128-134-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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