732
FXUS62 KTAE 011323
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
923 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTS. THERE'S BEEN SOME
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, BUT MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD RISK FOR NOW. HOWEVER, FOR DIXIE
COUNTY, THERE HAS BEEN A RATHER PERSISTENT BAND BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM SOUTHWEST OF CROSS CITY INTO APALACHEE BAY SOUTH OF ST.
GEORGE ISLAND, AND THIS HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD. WE'LL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY IF IT CONTINUES TO TRAIN THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER THING WE'VE NOTICED THIS MORNING IS THAT THERE'S JUST
ENOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW TODAY THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
TAPPED INTO TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN RATHER INNOCUOUS LOOKING
STORMS, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. AND WE'LL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS IN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THIS TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE SE U.S. BRINGING A
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE TOTALS
OF SEVERAL INCHES. THE SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS
TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL AS WE WILL HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. FORECAST PWATS WILL RANGE
FROM 2.2-2.5", INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
FORTUNATELY, ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE NOT SHOWING AN INCREASED
RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER, STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
GUIDANCE STARTS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EMERALD COAST THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THESE STORMS MAY
HUG ALONG THE COASTAL REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL OF NUISANCE AND/OR FLASH FLOODING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND SPREAD EASTWARDS AND INLAND. THE OVERALL SYSTEM,
BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY (SATURDAY)
AND COVERS THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND HENCE
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF THE
FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. MORE INFO IS
DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S, AND HUMID.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND SHIFT EASTWARD, LOWERING OUR RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE TERM AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-70S WITH DAILY POPS GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO ABOUT 30-40% EACH AFTERNOON; A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MORE MVFR CIGS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY WITH
THE RAINFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SPEAKING OF RAIN, SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE OFF
AND ON CONVECTION WITH PROBABILITIES 70-90% BEGINNING A LITTLE
LATER THIS MORNING. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING CONVECTION COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE TILL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP AFFECTING DHN/ABY/VLD AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE ZONES
EVERY DAY. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND
CAUTIONARY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE RANGING
AROUND 3-5 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX WITH SEAS RETURNING TO AROUND 2
FEET WITH WINDS LATER LESSENING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20 MPH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN
LESSENING TO 5-10 MPH FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SE U.S.. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF, INCREASING PWATS
TO RANGE FROM 2.2-2.5" ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND. 3-6 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 8-10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. THE WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY (SATURDAY). ON SUNDAY, THE SLIGHT
RISK IS REDUCED TO THE FLORIDA STATE LINE, WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1 OF 4) FOR OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE BIG BEND REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IS INCREASED IN THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HENCE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING (5 AM EDT / 4 AM CDT) THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RIVERS ARE IN GOOD CONDITION AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER, A FEW
COASTAL RIVERS MAY SEE RISES DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN
ULTIMATELY FALLS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 84 74 86 73 / 90 30 90 70
PANAMA CITY 87 79 87 77 / 80 60 90 70
DOTHAN 88 75 89 72 / 80 50 70 50
ALBANY 88 73 88 73 / 80 50 90 40
VALDOSTA 90 73 88 72 / 90 30 80 70
CROSS CITY 86 74 85 73 / 90 80 90 80
APALACHICOLA 85 78 85 77 / 90 50 90 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ012-014-015-027>029-
034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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